1/Regardless of the election outcome, Trump's inroads with Hispanic voters kills the idea that the Democrats are the Inevitable Party of the Demographic Future. https://www.amazon.com/Emerging-Democratic-Majority-John-Judis/dp/0743254783

2/This idea was always based on the false belief that future ethnic voting patterns would be similar to past patterns -- that "Latinos vote like such-and-such" was a stable property of the Universe that would remain constant through the decades.

3/Ignoring the lessons of history, some Democrats believed that Hispanics would always be a reliable 70-30 voting bloc, so that all Democrats had to do was sit and wait for their numbers to swell, and the GOP would vanish like morning mist.

4/But the bigger impact was on the REPUBLICANS.

The idea of inevitable demographic doom TERRIFIED Republicans. It made them feel that their only choice was to crash the plane of American democracy. https://claremontreviewofbooks.com/digital/the-flight-93-election/

5/Why did Republicans turn against Reagan's pro-immigration policies?

Was it because they got Even Moar Racist?

Or because they truly cared about protecting jobs?

NO! It was because they came to believe that immigration = importing Democratic votes! https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-05/ronald-reagan-the-diversity-president

6/After Romney's loss in 2012, the GOP gave up on Reagan's belief that Latino voters were persuadable.

The result was Trump. The result was the surrender of the pro-immigration GOP establishment to the anti-immigration portion of the GOP base.

7/This is not a new phenomenon in American politics.

200 years ago, Whigs and Federalists were freaking out about the Democrats importing Irish immigrant votes! https://twitter.com/Noahpinion/status/1082042347888685056

8/But Republican inroads with Hispanics this year -- even after the grisly spectacle of Honduran kids in cages!! -- show that Hispanics are probably not fundamentally different from earlier large immigrant groups like the Irish and Italians in terms of persuadability.

9/This may have to do with cultural assimilation. Net immigration from Mexico and Central America ended 13 years ago, and English becomes universal with Hispanics over the generations.

10/It may be a function of economic assimilation, as Hispanics catch up to whites in terms of income and education. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-06/hispanic-american-incomes-rising-faster-than-any-other-group-s?sref=R8NfLgwS

11/But whatever the reason, it means that Hispanics are not -- and probably never will be -- a political monolith.

They have very differing opinions. They disagree. They are not a solid bloc.

They're just American voters, who need to be won over and persuaded.

12/Of course that means that those of us who want the country to move to the left policy-wise have our work cut out for us. We will need to argue against a hefty contingent of conservative Hispanics! We will need to fight for the marginal Hispanic voter!

13/But in terms of averting a full racial balkanization of American politics, this shift may have a silver lining.

Maybe Republicans will now realize that immigration is not their doom.

And it never was.

(end)