If Biden wins narrowly, Europe will breath a sigh of relief. But result is no widespread repudiation of Trumpism and Biden will be consumed with domestic divisions. Hence not credible for a President Biden to go to Europe and say Trump was an aberration and the US is back again.

Even if Trump is gone, it will do little to reassure Paris and some other EU capitals about the long-term reliability of the US as a security partner especially in Europe’s neighborhood. 2024 is just around the corner. Expect drive toward European strategic autonomy to increase.

Europe cannot respond to a narrow Biden victory with lazy transatlanticism or complacency. But Biden would at least grant Europe some breathing space to get its act together. We all know Macron’s vision—Berlin will now need to clarify its vision is and seek to rally others.

Ultimately Europe’s strategy must be a mix of making quick strides to strengthen its own power, become a more equal and useful partner to the US, diversify its partnerships with other likeminded global players and double down on fixing the multilateral system.