Thread by @mithaldu, i'm seeing people go"omg the pollsters were wrong again"and"ugh polling companies really [...]

Mithaldu

mithaldu

i'm seeing people go

"omg the pollsters were wrong again"

and

"ugh polling companies really need to change how they work"

meanwhile here's how polling compares to real results

here's another one of these predictions that i'd love to have someone explain as "wrong"

also, for anyone wondering why pennsylvania is slated as blue despite currently skewing red:

and here's a visual aid that could go some ways towards explaining why dem turnout still appears much lower than expected

Here's the final shakeout for @NateSilver538 :

- whole lotta correct predictions
- 1 wrong
- 3 toss-ups that went the other way

You can't argue he got it wrong.

best summary right now:

- there are 4 states in play
- to win: Biden has 7 options VS Trump with 3 options
- all 4 states are currently slipping towards Biden
- even Arizona (where the lead is decreasing) because the lead is dropping too slowly for Trump

and here's @NateSilver538's senate predictions and the outcomes

seriously, going "they got it wrong" at this point is on the same level as "but her emails"

even german news papers are criticizing people who say "polls wrong" and point out that hammering on that line actually helps trump because it supports the claim of "biden's win was narrow" (it wasn't at all) https://twitter.com/Semilocon/status/1326110233605890048

https://twitter.com/Semilocon/status/1326110233605890048

To make it more clear why the "but the margins aren't accurate" is at this point in time wrong, here's a comparison of the "expected to win easily" states in terms of their combined margins (per capita) and how far their vote count is.

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