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Put aside the core contests for a minute, hard as that is.
Here's a question that doesn't seem to even get asked, and which is deeply puzzling about American society.
Not, 'Why are we so divided?'
But, 'Why are so many individual states _perfectly_ divided?'
Here's a question that doesn't seem to even get asked, and which is deeply puzzling about American society.
Not, 'Why are we so divided?'
But, 'Why are so many individual states _perfectly_ divided?'
2/ It's so bad for the way our politics works, and it is so odd.
Massachusetts makes sense. 59% Biden.
Arkansas makes sense. 62% Trump.
Illinois: 56% Biden.
Missouri: 57% Trump.
But we have 7 to 12 states on a knife's edge of division politically. Year after year.
Massachusetts makes sense. 59% Biden.
Arkansas makes sense. 62% Trump.
Illinois: 56% Biden.
Missouri: 57% Trump.
But we have 7 to 12 states on a knife's edge of division politically. Year after year.
3/ How do places as complicated, as big as Wisconsin and Michigan end up divided by 0.7 percentage points?
Wisconsin, votes in, right now: 3,239,977
97% counted.
Margin: 20,697.
That's a 2-vote margin out of 323 cast.
Except 3,239,977 votes have been cast!
(+3% points more)
Wisconsin, votes in, right now: 3,239,977
97% counted.
Margin: 20,697.
That's a 2-vote margin out of 323 cast.
Except 3,239,977 votes have been cast!
(+3% points more)
4/ Michigan, votes in, right now: 5,387,503
95% counted.
Margin: 76,737.
That's an 8-vote margin out of 539 cast.
Except 5,387,503 votes have been cast!
(+5% votes more)
95% counted.
Margin: 76,737.
That's an 8-vote margin out of 539 cast.
Except 5,387,503 votes have been cast!
(+5% votes more)
5/ And in American politics, this happens over and over.
In Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania — it happens cycle after cycle. Florida.
Then the states that come and go, like Arizona and N. Carolina.
These margins are not 100,000 votes or 1,000,000 votes.
In Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania — it happens cycle after cycle. Florida.
Then the states that come and go, like Arizona and N. Carolina.
These margins are not 100,000 votes or 1,000,000 votes.
6/ 'Random' geographies with to some degree 'random' mixes of people end up absolutely perfectly divided.
Maybe the political science folks know this phenomenon & understand it, study it, talk about it.
You never hear it even mentioned in popular journalism or analysis.
Maybe the political science folks know this phenomenon & understand it, study it, talk about it.
You never hear it even mentioned in popular journalism or analysis.
7/ And yet often the political future — and the economic and social future — of the United States turns on it.
Are the people of N Carolina, in fact, perfectly divisible by two in political terms?
Of Michigan? Pennsylvania?
Are the people of N Carolina, in fact, perfectly divisible by two in political terms?
Of Michigan? Pennsylvania?
8/ Obviously, the electoral college system enhances the importance of this.
But if you wave a magic future-wand and eliminate the electoral college system, many Senate races end up the same way, even House races that are competitive end up the same way.
But if you wave a magic future-wand and eliminate the electoral college system, many Senate races end up the same way, even House races that are competitive end up the same way.
9/ It's a dynamic.
All these places change significant election cycle to election cycle.
And yet the razor thin margins keep appearing. It's not some kind of natural phenomenon, like the geography of Michigan or North Carolina.
Our politics in part powers it & re-creates it.
All these places change significant election cycle to election cycle.
And yet the razor thin margins keep appearing. It's not some kind of natural phenomenon, like the geography of Michigan or North Carolina.
Our politics in part powers it & re-creates it.
