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As someone who is writing a book on the disputed 2000 Florida election, a few quick thoughts as we enter an uncertain time about the historical echoes and differences between then and now
1)When America woke up the morning after the 2000 election, most people assumed George Bush was the winner. The networks had (incorrectly) declared the race around 2 am. Gore had conceded, then un-conceded. This proved politically crucial. Nothing of the sort happened last night
2)When the campaign lawyers flew down to Florida the morning after, they thought it would be a quick, 2-3 day process. No one anticipated a 36-day court case. This time, both campaigns are prepared for this contingency. They have personnel and battle plans in place
3)At the beginning, the idea that the Supreme Court would get involved in a statewide recount was unthinkable. The court was considered, to a degree that no longer exists, an institution of authority above politics. That's why Bush v. Gore came as a huge shock
4)Even after Bush v. Gore, some on the Gore legal team--including, significantly, Biden's top adviser Ron Klain--thought he had legal paths forward. Gore chose not to take them. He was highly concerned, throughout, with appearing to win legitimately, so he could govern
5)In fact, after Bush v. Gore came down, Gore wrote his campaign aides a Blackberry message reading: "PLEASE MAKE SURE NO ONE TRASHES THE SUPREME COURT"
6)Also, while everyone knows about Bush v. Gore, people should also examine the arguments in the *first* Supreme Court argument over the election, Bush v. Palm Beach Canvassing Board.
7)In that case, Scalia and Rehnquist dusted off an 1892 case, McPherson v. Blacker, which found that "there is no color for the contention that" the Constitution establishes an individual "right to vote for presidential electors." That lies with state legislatures (hello, GA)
8)The legislative override was a dog that didn't bark in 2000, but Republicans had the dog ready. There was a bill to appoint a slate of Bush electors making its way through the FL legislature, and then Gov. Jeb Bush said he'd sign it
9)So, we this will be a long road. Unexpected things can and will happen. But biggest difference is, today, the Supreme Court is no longer regarded as a legitimate institution by many Democrats. There is no chance Democrats will passively accept a decision ending count
10)The last thing I should add, since Biden has pulled into the lead since I wrote these tweets this morning, is that the absolutely crucial objective for the Bush legal team throughout was to maintain its margin, however slight
It was *incredibly* difficult (and ultimately impossible) for Gore to make up a Bush margin that was btw 300-700 votes in one state. Trump is looking at a margin of multiple thousands in several. Barring big change in numbers in Nevada tomorrow, Trump is running out of oxygen
On the pessimistic side, the reason the maintaining a slight margin was important for Bush was also matter of politics. Gore was incredibly image conscious. He did not want to be seen as upending democracy. He worried (probably to his detriment) about limits of public's patience
Trump, needless to say, is not as worried about that
