There’s clearly a massive problem in Miami-Dade, but it’s not the whole story in Florida. Consider: **Even if Biden had pulled off the same margin in Miami-Dade as Hillary Clinton in 2016, he still would have lost Florida by a 170K vote margin.** The issue is broader/deeper.

Biden underperformed Clinton in 54 of Florida’s 67 counties. Given Miami-Dade’s size, it accounts for a large part of the shift (58%), but not its entirety. There was lagging performance among various groups...

If we are going to ask why Biden underperformed among Hispanic voters, as we should, we should also what happened in majority white counties. Biden got 38% of the white vote in FL. He was polling at an avg of 42% in Oct. Had that white support held, he would’ve won FL.

Notably Biden lost seniors in Florida 47-52. And for all the talk of college-educated voters, white college graduates went for Trump 56-42. Meanwhile, *non-white college graduates supported Biden 67-30.*

The small number of counties in which Biden improved over Clinton’s margin, 13 in total, including Duval, Orange and Seminole, are largely counties defined by their diversity or changing demographics.

The numbers in Florida complicate any single narrative, as they always do.

Here's the 2016/2020 shift in Florida, in charts (for under & over performance).