“War Clouds Over The Horn” #thread

TPLF’s original ideology was to fight for an independent/sovereign Republic of Tigray.

After over throwing the Derg regime, the Western powers told them they could not disintegrate Ethiopia (1/5) https://twitter.com/addisstandard/status/1323775783341563905

Instead of creating a new sovereign they inherited the existing one.

Federalism was the agreed upon social contract & Tigray region was given preferential treatment.

TPLF knew that they wouldn’t govern Ethiopia forever so they prepared their region for future independence (2/5)

TPLF made sure their region was a nation-in-waiting.

Mekelle (Tigray’s capital) became the most developed city after Addis.

They have top a notch university, airport, roads & most importantly the best regional security & armed forces.

TPLF have been preparing for years (3/5)

Eritrea’s President visited Addis to hold discussions with PM Abiy 3 weeks ago.

It now looks like they had closed door discussions about this war.

Isaias Afwerki wants revenge for the 1998-2000 War that the TPLF orchestrated.

He’ll likely attack from the northern front (4/5)

The geopolitical implications are enormous!

Egypt may assist the TPLF (my enemies enemy is my friend)

Also, Ethiopia is on thin ice & severely fractured due to ethnic tensions. It may disintegrate like Yugoslavia.

TPLF/Tigray are ready for this war, but is Abiy ready? (5/5)