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Just a couple more Maricopa poll voting reports today on my end. For full detailed results please visit http://www.azsos.gov or your county recorder’s website.
And now, a thread without #HotTakesCoolCharts
(1/10)
And now, a thread without #HotTakesCoolCharts
(1/10)
First the TL;DR Arizona is a swing state, Independent voters will play a large roll. Turnout of new Dem voters could swing the state. Pres & US Senate will be close. Winners may not be called on Tuesday night. #WhoKnew #BattleGroundAZ (2/10)
My estimate for overall turnout is 77 or 78%. Putting total ballots cast around 3.3M. At 8pm tonight the early ballots counted through 11/1 will be reported. Later in the evening poll voters will come in. Wed morning Recorders determine how many ballots are left to count. (3/10)
Going into election day, GOP has an advantage of 22k ballots. This is different from both 16&18. '16 Dems held an advantage for 10 days before GOP caught up
'20 has a motivated Dem base voting early. We'll see tonight is if these are new voters or old voters voting early (4/10)
'20 has a motivated Dem base voting early. We'll see tonight is if these are new voters or old voters voting early (4/10)
On the GOP side, waiting to cast a ballot is not the style. Going into e-day 2016, advantage was 100k. In 18, e-day saw an advantage ~120k ballots. 4x4 GOP voters are not voting at the same rate as 4x4 D&I's
Watch tonight to see if regular GOP voters show or sit out.(5/10)
Watch tonight to see if regular GOP voters show or sit out.(5/10)
In 2016, Clinton performed equally to Obama, Trump however, was -4.5% under Romney. Biggest increases came in 3rd party and under or blank voted ballots (6/10)
Despite a 120k ballot e-day disadvantage, Dems saw 4 statewide race pickups in 2018. None of these races were called on Tuesday. The Sinema/Trump precincts came from suburban Maricopa County. (7/10)
2018 also saw a departure from previous elections where high profile races flipped after all the ballots were counted on election night. Early 2020 returns show a possible reversal from this trend. (8/10)
The Dems are in a better position with early ballots than 4 and 2 years ago. However it remains to be see how the sizeable IND vote share will swing. Previously they have swung left, but not enough to overtake the GOP registration advantage. (9/10)
In 2016 and 2018 AZ saw late early and provisional ballots around 500-600k. High profile races could be called tonight but who knows. So go to bed if you can; some races won’t be called tonight. (10/10)
