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1/3 If Biden wins FL tonight, it’d be unique; he’d be the 1st top-of-ticket candidate to carry a state when his party had a lower share of ballots cast than the opponent’s party. As of about 6:30, GOP’s vote share was 1.8 points higher than Dems’ (R+1.8). It was R+0.6 in 16
2/3
To win like this, Biden would need a good share of independents (as much as a 7 point margin) or more GOP voters for him than Dem voters for Trump. Or a combo of both. Both are possible. But we haven’t seen a D win when Rs outvote Ds or an R win when Ds outvote Rs
To win like this, Biden would need a good share of independents (as much as a 7 point margin) or more GOP voters for him than Dem voters for Trump. Or a combo of both. Both are possible. But we haven’t seen a D win when Rs outvote Ds or an R win when Ds outvote Rs
3/3
THIS IS NOT A FORECAST
Polls are closing in 2min in the Eastern time zone & are open for another hour in Central.
We don’t know the final composition of the electorate. So it could be higher or lower than R+1.9.
And we don’t know the winner
THIS IS NOT A FORECAST
Polls are closing in 2min in the Eastern time zone & are open for another hour in Central.
We don’t know the final composition of the electorate. So it could be higher or lower than R+1.9.
And we don’t know the winner
