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(1/7) This won't be a "Storytime with Sharapan" length post @SportsbkConsig - but one I feel well qualified to opine on, given my experience in making lines & odds offshore for previous four presidential elections. Here are several thoughts I've gleaned in recent months & weeks:
(2/7) Longtime Nevada bookmaker @JimmyVaccaro has long (loudly, but also astutely & correctly) said 4 years of booking this - especially in atmospheres in 2016 & '20 where there is not a clear-cut winner - would maul all other handle on anything here- sporting event or otherwise.
(3/7) I have talked to many friends offshore before & up to today. Handle has been insane and many post-up places are getting a marketing bump thanks to extra new accounts/sign-ups and deposits. Credit places have been writing great action both ways for months. Biden closed at
(4/7) roughly 85-90 percent to win in most polls but as of 5 pm EST was only -222 (Trump +201) at sharpest place I know. [As of 5:30, it's up in the -230's, so here's a Biden move before Florida results.] Why? Maybe it's "poll doubt" from 4 years ago (and Brexit before that, when
(5/7)+1000 or better was available night of shock exit) & raw, and severe emotional involvement from both sides. That stands out most from watching this unfold stateside... and it's fascinating, because many folks I respect offshore are not behaving rationally. Why? Not sure, but
(6/7) I can see it... Some of the most logical sports bettors/bookmakers I know who almost always practice proper money management have seemingly gotten carried away with wanting one side (or strongly opining one side) or the other & are building unhealthy positions, win or lose.
(7/7) In conclusion, just like everything else, bet/book WITH your head and not over it - but in something this polarizing, it often falls on deaf ears. We won't likely have a winner tonight, but needless to say I'll be watching starting soon. Hope this is a good primer for all.
