OK, 10 minutes to polls closing in most of Kentucky, another hour for those in the west.
Here's some of what I'll be looking at when the early numbers roll in, starting with Fayette County.
The Barr-Hicks race in the congressional 6th District. McGrath ran 3% behind Barr in 2018, beating Barr 60-40% in Fayette. Hicks likely needs better than that margin there to have a chance.
The McConnell-McGrath #kysen race. Using the razor tight Beshear-Bevin race last November as a bar, McGrath will have to perform very similar. Beshear got 66% to Bevin's 33% in 2019... she'll need something similar or better to have a shot.
The Trump-Biden race in Kentucky, using Trump-Clinton as a bar. Trump stomped Clinton 63%-33%, with Clinton only winning Fayette 51%-42%. If Biden does much better there and statewide is within 20%, these kind of results would have big ramifications nationally.
And now we have a 2-minute warning to polls closing in most of Kentucky.
Fayette results usually start coming in in about 5 minutes.....
Trump with early 66% to 33% lead over Biden in Elliot County. Elliot went for Trump over Clinton 70%-26%...
Trump over Biden 86%-13% in Casey County... that was 85-12 in 2016.
McConnell 58%, McGrath 38% in Elliott so far. Elliott went 59-39 for Beshear over Bevin last year (Rocky campaigned for him)
Bath County, Barr over Hicks 68-31. Barr beat McGrath in 2018 60-39. Good sign for Barr in a district that has seen big jump in GOP registration and turnout.
McConnell over McGrath 59%-39% in Jessamine County, where Bevin led Beshear 55%-43% last year
I'm about to hop on to the Courier Journal Facebook Live video, so I'll see you in a bit as we wait from Fayette.
Actually, here's 60% in from Fayette County:

Biden 73%
Trump 25%

Remember, Clinton only won there 51-43%. That is.... large.
In total vote count in Fayette so far that is:

Joe Biden 73% 61,260
Donald Trump 25%20,622
Fayette County

60% of precincts reporting
Amy McGrath 72%- 60,092
Mitch McConnell 26% -21,889

That's a strong margin so far.
brb
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