What does a @harrisonjaime win in SC look like? (a thread) [1] #scsen #sendlindseyhome #BlueWave2020

For @harrisonjaime to win:

- Charleston & Richland Counties turn out in record numbers.
- Black voter turnout reaches 2008 levels.
- Roughly 30% of white voters must break for Harrison.
- Harrison makes up ground in populous red counties, losing them in the 40%s, not 30%s. [2]

First 2 will likely happen. Second 2 will be tougher.

SC lacks electoral evidence in recent cycles to show it, but SC. is changing in the ways our neighbor states are. Rapidly growing, once-red areas are trending bluer. Once-blue rural areas are redder but shrinking. [3]

It isn’t far-fetched at all to think that a young, compelling, homegrown statewide candidate with unlimited resources in a presidential year might narrow the margins in these fast-growing places enough to make the math work. [4]

I built a spreadsheet showing what a Harrison victory might look like. The table assumes 75% turnout statewide. Counties are sorted according to their percentage of the state’s registered voters. Voter reg info for each county was obtained from http://scvotes.gov . [5]

I included additional historical data for context. In SC, we don’t register by political party. Since our electorate is highly racially polarized, I included turnout info by race bc it’s usually the closest approximation we have for partisan ID. [6]

Here's my spreadsheet showing what a @harrisonjaime victory in SC might look like. Please tell me if you spot any problems. (I’m a spreadsheet n00b and won’t be offended!) [7] #scsen #sendlindseyhome #bluewave2020 #ElectionDay #Elections2020 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qi-ifqum3FUL-2RFUsQzzasKB8eAVdxFwXSfGi2g-es/edit?usp=sharing