A new era for NBN now the initial rollout is complete*. Lots to cover, starting with an NBN hearing today. CEO Rue: "The valuation of a company is something that will only be determined when there is a willing buyer & a willing seller. A potential sale has nothing to do with me."
Big news this week ... NBN Co had to buy parts of the company that managed its business satellite service. That includes tearing up a $184m, 10 year contract.
Why is this important? NBN Co needs to increase revenue, and selling to business is a key part to that. Only problem is, this part of the business was unprofitable! I managed to dig up this statement, filed as part of the company's US bankruptcy process. Pretty damning reading.
What else makes it interesting? One NBN Co director, Michael Malone, is also on the board of Speedcast! Apparently he wasn't around when the board discussed Speedcast last year (from this line in the annual report) ... even though he attended 9 of 10 board meetings.
NBN Co head of regional Gavin Williams on regional upgrades & role of 5G: "I wouldn't say we've been as crisp as quarantining an amount of funding for one technology over another, the envelope of funding we've included in our plan averages out to approximately $200m a year..."
"We'll need to see what kind of cost points we can get on various types of equipment, the nature of the upgrades we need to do from time to time to best ascertain on a more situational basis the type of tech that would best liberate the customer experience outcome frankly..."🧐
On demand-driven FTTN upgrades, Rue said started planning perhaps in last weeks of 2018, but probably 2019. Was it costed before May 2019 election? "I'm not sure, we certainly would have done high level estimates." But more analysis March to June this year.
On Fibre Business Zones, Rue said selection of zones "we did a lot of work around April (2020)".

Labor's Susan Templeman going hard on what work was done before the May 2019 election.
Why FTTP over FTTC in terms of upgrades? "When we look at on-demand model, FTTP is more cost effective." Ie single home for FTTC is more expensive for FTTP. For FTTC they have to place expensive distribution units in pits which also might need remediation.
NBN Co still working out the rules with retailers for locking in customers who sign up for more expensive plans in order to get fibre lead-in upgrade, so customers can't just go back to a cheaper plan once the install is complete.
On FTTN>FTTP upgrades, NBN Co only expecting people to start moving across in significant numbers in late 2022.
Just a note, a lot of this was already covered in estimates two weeks ago. Handily, the great folks at Hansard have prepared a transcript: https://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/download/committees/estimate/848d6520-0b6d-453a-901a-3b5803c2ca0a/toc_pdf/Environment%20and%20Communications%20Legislation%20Committee_2020_10_22_8229.pdf;fileTy
Will people who have already upgraded to FTTP receive a refund (ie via Technology Choice)? Rue: The person may not be part of footprint, they are already receiving benefit ... so no refund. Though they are allowing current Tech Choice applications on foot to be cancelled.
On next areas for FTTN>FTTP upgrades: No decisions been made. "Lots of lenses"... Capital efficiency. Distribution (FTTN per state). Mobilisation - ie local labour/council capacity. Aiming to progressively roll out more information in coming months. "Quite a complex procedure."
@helenhainesindi On new $300m regional co-investment fund. How will these be chosen? Rue: "Currently working through process of how we will do that." Talking to state govts soon. Then criteria will be set out. Once that is developed, they will lay out criteria and ask for EOIs.
Expecting to have criteria ready in next few months, EOIs early in 2021. Priority for areas targeted for decentralisation? Rue has no doubt we will see more people being able to work from home, and move outside capital cities. "Need for regional services will only grow."
Rue: Where there are areas where I cannot get a return on investment, need to partner with states and councils. THIS IS IMPORTANT. Essentially saying that NBN Co won't take fibre deeper in regions without state and council co-investment.
@helenhainesindi is concerned about regions excluded from $300m fund and FTTP upgrades. Ie NBN neglecting digital divide. Williams: "I'm not seeing a single sector which is not going through a digital transformation..."
"... there is a need to support massive inherent innovation that is manifest throughout regional Australia." Love this guy. Says "our job is never done", $300m co-investment is important next step.
Williams: "We're putting our money where our mouth is" to expand network "where we can economically achieve that".
Rue: "NBN is living, breathing organism" that will evolve. Restates need to make return. Says he wants to make tech work better for consumers. "But there will be areas that you or your colleagues argue" need more funding, but "not a question for the company".
Rue is going into detail about what counts when calculating cost per premises (CPP). Says ongoing capital expenditure for maintenance doesn't. Ie so $200m per year for fixed wireless won't affect CPP. Seems pretty grey. Do we need a lifetime investment metric?
Rue assures us that the $400m for HFC mentioned in the September release is new money. Says what they are actually doing is "conservative", ie by bringing forward node splits in HFC. Emphasises resilience is being pursued in recent announcement alongside speed and capacity.
On 109k premises that couldn't connect to NBN on 1 July (ie when rollout was finished), this is down to 69k. "Majority" resolved by end of year, according to Kathrine Dyer. Cites complex construction, late tech changes or new developments.
Dyer notes two areas in Parramatta won't be connected this financial year - last to connect. Due to "very significant indigenous cultural heritage issues". Also NBN Co couldn't complete design of network while light rail was happening. @kt_calderwood @NourHaydar
On NBN Co internal rate of return. Has gone from 3.2% to 3.7% this year. Rue said calculation has changed, more "granular" BUT claims consistent with previous approach. Now being calculated out to 2040. Some other tweaks. "A different way of doing it ... but more granular."
How could IRR be higher, given recent investments @stemplemanmp asks? Rue says her methodology is wrong. Redirects question to talk about what's happened to revenue streams. Then also says the context of her question is flawed. Suggests over a long time revenue will increase.
@tonypasin wants to know how NBN Co is doing better with outage notifications. Williams concedes outages were managed poorly. Says now there is a more granular NBN planned outage tool on the web. Plus, a "game changer"! Decided to push outages/upgrade to nights.
@tonypasin asking about fixed wireless performance improvements. Williams: "Multi-faceted answer". Includes rearrangement of spectrum, prioritising download over upload. More efficient terminals (dishes on roofs). Range of other techniques.
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