Why should we care about the US election?

A few people asking me this today

So few thoughts on UK politics and why everything that matters in the US matters here

#ElectionNight

To take the most important thing which is before us in the next few months: Brexit

I think a Biden victory will all but guarantee a Brexit deal. The Biden camp/Democrats are suspicious about Boris Johnson and Brexit. They (fairly or unfairly) see Johnson and Brexit as…

….a British version of Trump (Trump has after all referred to himself as “Mr Brexit”). On top of this, Biden has strong ties with Ireland and the Irish American caucus. He has made clear he expects there to be no consequences to the peace process in Ireland and….

….is essentially committed to the softest Brexit possible. At this stage, an FTA is that. No 10 know this and will be cognisant of the fact that no longer in the EU, some (emphasise some) of the UK’s usefulness as its conduit to the block is no longer there.

All of this (atop of the big problems at home with lockdown) will make a deal even more likely with Biden in the White House (or about to be).

I still think that’s likely with a Trump win but clearly, Trump is basically opposed to the EU, in favour of Brexit and…

…wouldn’t care if there’s an FTA either way.

It matters in electoral terms and for the character of politics in the UK too.

Keir Starmer’s team want a Biden win, not just because he’s more to their taste of further to the left but because it would be a…

…bit of evidence (just a bit) that their approach to politics might work. You sidestep at least some of the so-called culture war, that you can at least stop the bleeding with traditional working class supporters, that you don’t have to be a populist (left or right to win)

That you can also win on partly on the question of competence, of stability, of making the politics stop. None of these are perfect analogies and America is a very different society but it will be succour for the Starmerite project.

It might also change the character of politics on the right too. A defeat (especially if it’s a big one) might change the dynamics of populism in Europe, might indicate there’s a limit to how far institutions, norms, electorates can be pushed. It’s been a period…

…where it’s been assumed that the politics of populism has been the coming force. Trump seemed to signal that historic norms of political behaviour didn’t matter. A defeat would imply these things had at least some limits.

In American terms- if there is a Biden victory, the thing I’m most looking for is the size because it’ll tell us something about the politics to come (for them and for us)

If it’s a narrow Biden victory, it will imply that the American party system…

…has not really realigned, that it’s still in the uneasy stasis we’ve seen of late, with no party dominating. Republicans (and of course Trump) will say he would have won had it not been for the pandemic (sorry Scooby). The next GOP nominee would probably be a bit like Trump.

A crushing Biden win- where he takes Texas, Georgia, Arizona etc- would imply a potential new party system emerging, where Democrats come to dominate in the sun belt and the new South. It would leave no viable electoral map for the Republicans and potentially force deep change…

…in its search for a new coalition. It may have to start looking beyond the culture war and the relatively narrow racial and social base which sustains it.

Because American politics (and that culture war) is the centrifuge of much of the politics we see in Europe, that will have an effect on us too.

Right- bring it on!

#ElectionNight #Election2020