How much are the odds against Trump? It’s not just about Trump. The Democrats’ advantage in the electoral college has been building for nearly three decades, since Bill Clinton’s breakthrough victory in 1992, or even the 1988 election that George Bush Sr. won in a walk. 1/5

If you take just the states the Democrats have won every time since 1988 — WA, OR, NY, MA, and RI, states that had been as likely to vote Republican as Democrat until then, plus perennial Democratic strongholds MN, HI and DC — it adds up to 80 electoral college votes. 2/5

Add in the states that flipped in 1992 and have never flipped back — CA, IL, CT, ME, NJ, VT, DE, and MD — again, all solidly Republican states before then (VT had only ever voted Democrat in one election prior to ’92), it comes to 196. 3/5

Now add the states that have voted Democrat in all but ONE election since 92 — NM, WI, MI, PA, NH — and you’re up to 251.

Throw in NV, CO and VI, states that have been solidly Dem snce at least 2008, and you’e at 279 — enough for a majority even if they won no other states. 4/5

That’s before we even get to the once-solid GOP strongholds that have emerged as possible Dem wins in this election: AZ, GA, NC, even TX, with 80 votes between them.

Conclusion: Trump has hurt the GOP, badly. But the party was in trouble long before him, and will be after. 5/5