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Because the pandemic changed the way many people voted, I wanted lay out how tonight's LOCAL coverage might look different than in years past. First, it's going to be harder to call races. That's because of the extraordinary number of absentee ballots sent in. 1/
In Monroe County, roughly 95K voted through an absentee ballot. How significant of a number is that? We MIGHT get 400K votes in total this year. That means absentee votes could make up 25% (!) of the vote. And here's the thing: absentee votes aren't even opened for days. Why? 2/
They wait to open absentees because of the very concern many of you have expressed: they don't want people to vote twice. SO, they take time to research. The Board of Elections sees if anyone voted in early voting or today AND through absentee and they toss any extra votes. 3/
This means tonight, if all goes to plan, we'll only be getting early vote and Election Day numbers. While that could make up 75% of the vote, we'll likely hold back on calling close races because 95K votes could dramatically swing results. That said... 4/
A note: Democrats sent in WAY more absentee ballots than Republicans in Monroe County - around 48K to 21K. So in a countywide race like the 25th CD (Morelle [D]/Mitris [R]/Wilson [L]), if the Dem has a wide lead tonight, we might call it bc absentees will likely favor a Dem. 5/
On the flip side, if a Republican candidate has a healthy lead tonight, we might wait given how much the absentee ballots can shift the contest. This is all to say everyone, including us, needs to go into this with patience. Abnormal year = abnormal expectations. 6/6
