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My guess is Trump is pretty sui generis *and* context-specific to our micro-era, and that it is gong to be very difficult to duplicate his political feats, either by those who want to carry on with Trumpism, or by those of other ideologies who want to emulate the style. https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1323705041337917441
I’ve always put successful politicians into two broad archetypes: naturals and adaptors. Naturals succeed because just being who they are is a perfect fit for their constituency and/or their cause and/or their moment. 1/
These are the ethnic pols from the local city machines, or the ranchers who represent a rural western district, or the small town mayor who has lived in town for his whole 50 years. They are Mansbridge’s gyroscopic representation come to life. 2/
Successful adaptors, on the other hand, have tremendous political skills, and can more easily alter their style, positions, and activities based on new circumstances. They tailor their political behavior to the electoral and representational circumstances. 3/
Naturals tend to have difficulty moving up beyond a certain point. They stall out at the limits of their natural constituencies. Some never get past mayor. Others never get past the House. They lack the skills to transform themselves into successful statewide office holders. 4/
Adaptors do not have this problem. And so the vast majority of statewide and national political figures are adaptors, who have the political skills to adjust to new constituencies, issues, and times. 5/
In any given spot, I think a natural is probably more successful. But the ambition structure tends to weed them out, meaning most high-level pols are adaptors.
No politician is wholly natural or adaptor. But many strongly exhibit one trait or another. My working guess is that Trump is a natural who happened to make it to the top, because the circumstances almost perfectly met his abilities. 6/
I think that means (a) it will be hard for Trump to have a political future; and (b) tough for all the adaptors out there to successfully copy Trump; and (c) make another Trump less likely.
But this is all just a hazy guess.
But this is all just a hazy guess.
We don’t get proto-strongmen all that often in American politics. One reason, I think, is because it’s more the domain of the naturals, and the conditions are rarely perfect for it.
