Thread by @grisingTRS, Analysis of career-arc progression of top players with long careers.The results will [...]

George Rising

grisingTRS

Analysis of career-arc progression of top players with long careers.

The results will allow us to:
1) Compare a player's career arc (inc. decline phase) vs. the "typical" arc of a top player with a long career.

2) Make projections about:
Players w/ short careers.
Active players

Career-arc progression of top players with long careers.

Thread.

@HunidLikeWilt
@LeaguePasshole
@Wilts_GOAT
@DlONWAlTERS
@GreekGodofStats

Project Method:
Took stats of 25 top RETIRED players (5 from each position) with long careers. "Long" based on career games and career minutes played.

Players in study:
Parish
Kareem
M. Malone
Olajuwon
Shaq

Dirk
K. Malone
Garnett
Duncan
Hayes

Pierce
Havlicek
English
Pippen
D. Wilkins

Carter
Miller
Kobe
Allen
Joe Johnson

Stockton
Kidd
Payton
Parker
Nash

Observation:
C & PF: Longest careers
SF & SG: Shortest
PG: In middle

For all 25 players:
Adjusted all of each year's stats to league average, 1955-2019.
Adjusted all of each year's stats to 36 MP. (But I also will look at each year's stats based on actual per game.)

I averaged all these adjusted stats:
By position: 5 players
Overall: 25 players

There's a lot you can do with this information.

But in the rest of this thread, I'll simply compare career arc of Wilt, Kareem, Jordan, and LeBron to the "typical" career arc of top players with longevity.

Career arc:
Wilt's stats (adjusted for era & 36 MP) vs. top center's stats:

PTS/36: Downward trend more than average top center
TS% & REB: Similar trend to average top center
AST/36: Upward trend more than average top center

Career arc:
Kareem's stats (adjusted for era & 36 MP) vs. top center's stats:

PTS & TS%: Similar trend to average top center
REB: Downward trend more than average top center
AST: Above average top center, but downward last 10 yrs

Jordan's stats (adjusted for era & 36 MP) vs. top SG's stats:

PTS/36: Similar trend (but higher) to average top SG
TS%: Similar trend, except last 2 yrs w/ Wizards
REB/36: After first 4 yrs, jumps up
AST/36: Similar trend to SG, except for 1989 (when he played some PG) and 2002

Career arc:
Through 2019: LeBron's stats (adjusted for era & 36 MP) vs. top SF's stats:

PTS/36 & AST/36: Similar career arc (but higher) to top SF through first 14 yrs, but then NOT dropping yr 15-on
TS%: Similar trend to ave SF
REB/36: Upward trend (except 2014 & 15) vs. ave

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