Lots to watch for this election day, obviously, but allow me to make a case for why you should take interest in Oregon's legislative races... The heavily contested ones at least. #orleg #orpol 1/

This is something I took little interest in before covering state politics, and even then it took me a while to get up to speed. I imagine that most folks are in the same boat. But there are some interesting things at play this year! 2/

For starters, look at the makeup of the Oregon House and Senate. Democrats hold three-fifths supermajorities in each, meaning they can theoretically pass any bill without a single Republican vote. 3/

But as we’ve seen three times in the last two years, that doesn’t necessarily matter. When the minority party really wants to stop a bill, it has repeatedly walked away from the Capitol, denying Dems the quorum they need to conduct any business. 4/

So the question for today: Can Dems win the two-thirds majority that would allow them to conduct business regardless of whether Republicans show up? Some believe that Democratic voters are so supercharged this is within reach. 5/

Meanwhile, Republicans look at the map and see places where they think they can win back seats -- namely the coast. They have been tying Dems to unrest in Portland and making the case for balance. Here are the big races to watch for. 6/

In the House, Republicans feel very bullish that they will flip House District 9, on the South Coast. The Democrat who holds the seat is stepping down, and the Republican candidate, Boomer Wright, has a fundraising advantage. Plus Rs have a small registration advantage. 7/

On the flip side, Rs and Ds alike think that Republican Rep. Cheri Helt is in big trouble. Her Bend district, HD 54, leans Democratic, and she faces a competent challenger this year, unlike in 2018. It’s possible the parties swap those two seats, with no net difference. 8/

A big question mark is HD 32, on the North Coast, where the Democratic incumbent isn’t running. The void has created the most expensive House race, with Tillamook Mayor Suzanne Weber, R, battling antique mall owner Debbie Boothe-Schmidt, D. Dems lead in registrations. 9/

There are also notable House races in the Salem area, Hood River, and perhaps in Portland’s suburbs. Flips in those seats would be a bigger surprise. 10/

In the Senate, the map is straightforward. There are three seats in play: One that Republicans feel they can turn, and two Democrats are hoping to flip. 11/

There’s a heated battle for Senate District 5, on the South Coast, where Democratic Sen. Arnie Roblan is retiring. This features Lincoln City Mayor Dick Anderson, R, versus Coos County Commissioner Melissa Cribbins, D. This is a D-leaning district but voted Trump in 2016. 12/

Dems think they have a real shot of flipping SD 10, in Salem, where incumbent Sen. Denyc Boles is on the ballot for the first time (she was appointed to the seat). District tilts Democratic, and Boles is not the institution that former R Sen. Jackie Winters was. 13/

The last biggie is in Bend, where longtime lawmaker Tim Knopp is trying to defend SD 27 from a challenge by Eileen Kiely, a Democrat and former financial executive. District tilts Dem, but Knopp has name recognition and a large fundraising advantage on his side. 14/

TLDR: Most notable legislative races tonight, House: HD 9, HD 54, and HD 32. Senate: SD 5, SD 10, and SD 27. And if you want more, click this link. Thanks! Sorry! Fin/ https://www.opb.org/article/2020/10/19/oregon-legislative-races-could-determine-future-of-capitol-walkouts/

#orleg #orpol