Interesting take on Ant IPO halt (thx multiple ppl who sent me!). Translation:

1. The draft regs must have been in draft for mos or even yrs! everyone involved must have known abt it (this makes perfect sense to me, again, banking regs aren't tweets).

https://m.weibo.cn/status/4567328480304364?

2. Jack Ma speech was unlikely to have been ego / emotion driven. He prob knew it would be unveiled soon, and his words were strategic. Was negotiation tactic.
(Speech was v specific in what it highlighted, was baffling at time but makes perf sense w draft regs out now.)

3. This "oversight" is a win for Ant. Ant is now legitimized & it's clear who oversees the co, whereas it kinda existed in gray zone before.
a) rules erect barrier for competitors (suck it $PDD, ByteDance, etc.)
b) huge 1st mover ad, Ant'll get 12 mos to comply w new rules

4. Regulators also win. They've now limited entrants into mkt. Focus increases on actual substantial players Ant, Tencent. Can ignore rest.

What do I think of this?
I am not so certain Ant does not get major egg on its face anyway but it is true that there is now a clear path to compliance & new entrants can only drool.

The TIMING of regs is curious and hard to explain away (unless u believe major collusion).

So I'd take w grain of salt but since Ant is already halted & regs out, indeed the more productive use of time is how does this affect the space & others trying to break in (which was everyone, frankly)?