A few thoughts on how the experience of number-crunching on #ElectionNight differs between the US and the UK.
Let’s start with the cultural differences... 🇬🇧 In the UK we call ourselves psephologists - a term derived from Greek reflecting our classical education 🤭 Our style is geek not chic (think arm patches).
Our American cousins work on the “Decision Desk”! They “call” the election (already sounds more impressive!) and have more expensive dentists, tailors and stylists. They may also wear a bow tie. Researchers are still investigating the reasons behind this.
Onto the practicalities. In the UK, for the exit poll we conduct interviews with voters at carefully selected polling stations across the UK. A bunch of political scientists spend the day modelling the results - which are announced as soon as polling stations close at 10pm.
Pundits and politicians then spend a few hours questioning the exit poll result, making increasingly outrageous pledges to eat random objects if the exit poll is correct, while Sir John Curtice looks on in bemusement.
Full constituency results start arriving around 10.45pm (usually from Sunderland) and within a few hours we have enough results to project the outcome unless it is extremely close.
In the US, the first national exit polls drop while people are still voting, but don’t include estimates of how people voted initially. Instead they give us an indication of who voted and how they responded to a series of questions about national politics and the candidates.
This gives us enough information to start telling the story of what the election was about (is this the COVID-19 election?).
As polls close in different states we start to get state exit polls which do tell us how the candidates are faring with different groups - giving insights into the electoral coalitions that they have put together.
This may give hints as to results in states with similar demographics or political contexts.
Now results. As has been discussed at length, there is some uncertainty over precisely when all states will be reporting due to high levels of early voting, but once polling stations close these will come in thick and fast for many states.
Unlike the UK where we are dealing with the complete results for a given constituency, we often will have a figure for the number of precincts or voters reporting in a given state. This means it isn’t always straightforward projecting the final result.
That is especially true as the sorts of places that declare earlier and later may be correlated with a greater or lesser likelihood to vote for a given candidate.
In the UK we will usually know the result by 6am the next morning. While there may be the odd recount or disputed result, the psephologists’ role fades into the background as we start to think about parliamentary politics.
In the US, the prospect of legal challenges and late counting mean that the result may not be clear for days. Despite what a certain president might say. 🏛😱
Obviously, you should watch @SkyNews tonight for the best coverage of #Election2020 !
In the meantime, democracy is coming to the USA 🇺🇸
You can follow @drjennings.
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