I want to take a few minutes of your time to explain why you shouldn't sleep on Texas. Yes it's voted for GOP presidents since before I was born, but that isn't likely tonight. The math is brutal for the @texasgop 1/

In 2016 Trump beat Hillary by 9%. In 2018 Cruz beat Beto 2.6%. What on earth is happening to the Texas electorate? 2/

Between 2016 and 2020 Texas added 1.9M registered voters. During the same time period the @texasgop added 68K voters while the @texasdemocrats added 988K voters. Between 2018 and 2020 the @texasgop actually shrunk! 3/

So walking into today's election, the @texasgop edge is just 600K votes compared to their edge in 2016 of 1.5M votes. I guess that means they need to win over the 4.9M independent voters right? 4/

The @texasgop hasn't won independent voters since...I actually find a time they won them....They lost indys in 2016 53/37. But the real exciting part are the folks that have never voted 5/

@BetoORourke loved to say that Texas isn't a GOP state, it's a non-voting state. He was right in 2017, but turnout is *insane* this year. Of the 9.7M votes cast so far in '20, 1.7M have been cast by folks who have never voted before. 6/

So here is the math right now. 2.7M of the 3.4M @texasgop and 2.3M of the 2.8M Dems have voted already. 2.9M Indys have voted and 1.7M first time voters have voted. If apply the 2016 Indy breakdowns....Biden is already leading 4.8M to 4.5M right now. 7/

More importantly, the partisans have already voted. Election Day 2020 is really going to be full of indys and first time voters. 6M of these folks still haven't voted yet. That's why I'm so focused on watching the vote totals. More Indys and 1st time voters means more D votes 8/

To be clear, just because Ds got 53% of Indys in '16 and '18 doesn't mean they get them in '20. And we don't really know how the EV partisans voted. But the initial math is initially bad for the @TexasGOP 9/9