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THREAD: My non-data-driven election outlook, considering what we can know without relying on polls. 1/
We know that following their 2012 loss, the GOP postmortem said it needed to reach out to minorities, women and younger voters while being generally kinder and gentler. We know Trump did none of that and got the nomination anyway. 2/
We know he ran against a well-known Democrat who had faced decades of media attacks and had significant opposition within her own party. 3/
We know a leftist third party candidate, Jill Stein, drained a million+ votes that would likely have gone to Clinton, and there is no similarly strong candidate this year. 4/
We know Trump won the White House by the narrowest of margins, losing the national popular vote and squeaking out slight wins in enough states to give him an Electoral College majority. 5/
We know Trump never even tried to enlarge his base, working instead to intensify its devotion to him. We know this attitude activated the opposition, including the very groups the 2012 GOP said were critical to future victories. 6/
We know that in 2016 Trump was a blank slate on which people could pin their hopes, and that in 2020 he is a president in whom they may now be disappointed. 7/
We know that in actual elections since 2016, Democrats have almost everywhere gained seats or at least narrowed GOP margins significantly. 8/
We know the economy is in deep recession with historically high unemployment, neither of which typically helps incumbent presidents. 9/
We know Republicans believe high turnout works against them, and that high turnout is happening. 10/
We know numerous Republicans and former Republicans have abandoned a Republican president, with some actively opposing him. 11/
We know Joe Biden survived decades of close scrutiny as senator, presidential candidate and vice president, with no significant scandals. 12/
We know 240,000+ Americans died in a pandemic this year, and their surviving family and friends can still vote. 13/
We know millions of 2016 older Trump voters won’t vote for him again because they are now dead. We know millions of more liberal younger voters took their place. 14/
Put all that together and a Biden victory seems like the most likely outcome. It shouldn't even be close. But it might be, so if you haven’t already, get out and #VOTE 
. 15/15
. 15/15
