Which races to watch, the role of postal votes and what happens if Donald Trump declares victory prematurely—our overview for election night. THREAD (1/11) https://econ.st/2HQyJQL
The state that matters most on Tuesday night is Florida. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are neck-and-neck there (2/11) https://econ.st/3kVjG6y
Other races to watch closely are: North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan (3/11)
We calculated the probability of either candidate winning the election if he wins one of these key states (4/11) https://econ.st/3oTzCss
Though our election forecast puts Joe Biden in the lead, Donald Trump could still find a path to victory (5/11) https://econ.st/3mLHQAU
In the past, postal votes have been counted late, leading to a late "blue shift", as Democrats are more likely to vote by mail (6/11)
This year, because of the pandemic, nearly 100m Americans have voted early—twice as many as in 2016. The high rejection rate of postal ballots could be a disadvantage to Democrats (7/11) https://econ.st/3kVlpJ4
The Economist's final forecast gives Joe Biden a better-than-19-in-20 chance of winning the electoral college (8/11) https://econ.st/3kW0l4X
News reports have suggested Donald Trump might try to call the results early or reject the result, a claim the president denies (9/11)
What happens if he rejects the result? We asked professor of law, Lawrence Douglas, for his view (10/11) https://econ.st/2TRvF97
Whatever the result of the election, Donald Trump's presidency is sure to have a lasting impact. What is his legacy? (11/11) https://econ.st/2HR77eh