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THREAD: Lots of about schools staying open during a 2nd lockdown – which we @ChildrensComm welcome. But not everyone does, because some are concerned that schools are driving Covid-19 transmission. Is that true? I decided to check all the data again.
Unfortunately, the prevalence of Covid-19 is going up – across all age groups. Among older children, teens and young adults, the prevalence is increasing slightly faster. The trend among younger children in is line with the pattern for adults.
The ONS figures suggest that around 1% of primary kids and 2% of secondary kids have Covid-19. Not great, but not wildly out of step with the rest of the population either.
Imperial College’s REACT-1 study shows a very similar trend: rising prevalence across all groups during September and October, and rates peaking among teens and young adults.
PHE data shows confirmed cases are:
-increasing in all age groups – except 10-19s, where rates are now falling
-increasing among young children, but much more slowly than for the rest of the population
-mostly accounted for by adults aged 20-59
-increasing in all age groups – except 10-19s, where rates are now falling
-increasing among young children, but much more slowly than for the rest of the population
-mostly accounted for by adults aged 20-59
Let’s unpack that 10-19 age group. More disaggregated data from govt’s Coronavirus dashboard shows that:
-rates among 10-19s driven by 15-19s; rates among 10-14s much lower and flatter
-rates are highest among 20-24s, followed by 15-19s and 25-29s
-rates among 10-19s driven by 15-19s; rates among 10-14s much lower and flatter
-rates are highest among 20-24s, followed by 15-19s and 25-29s
Are we seeing outbreaks in schools? Yes – but the trend was flat up to 19-25 Oct. If anything, there are slightly fewer outbreaks in secondary schools compared to September.
PHE figures show 221 outbreaks in nurseries and schools during 19-25 Oct. Note that:
-This works out, on average, to an outbreak in less than 1 in 100 schools each week
-“Outbreak” defined as 2+ cases linked to the same setting – so these could still be very small
-This works out, on average, to an outbreak in less than 1 in 100 schools each week
-“Outbreak” defined as 2+ cases linked to the same setting – so these could still be very small
Over last few weeks, growth in suspected outbreaks mostly driven by hospitals, care homes, workplaces & “other” settings – NOT education settings
(I should say “outbreaks” don’t conclusively prove transmission occurred within a setting, especially if local transmission is high)
(I should say “outbreaks” don’t conclusively prove transmission occurred within a setting, especially if local transmission is high)
So are schools driving increased transmission? Hard to see any data that proves that.
-Prevalence is up across ALL age groups
-In primary schools, teachers statistically more likely than pupils to have Covid-19
-Prevalence data can’t tell you where infections are occurring
-Prevalence is up across ALL age groups
-In primary schools, teachers statistically more likely than pupils to have Covid-19
-Prevalence data can’t tell you where infections are occurring
(cont.)
-Confirmed cases are up in nearly all age groups, now falling among 15-19s, and still much lower among young children than adults
-Number of outbreaks is flat in schools and increasing in other sectors
-Confirmed cases are up in nearly all age groups, now falling among 15-19s, and still much lower among young children than adults
-Number of outbreaks is flat in schools and increasing in other sectors
Of course, that’s not to say transmission can’t happen in schools. There may well be some. But the ECDC and WHO are both clear that schools are more likely to reflect community transmission – and key to make schools safer is to drive down transmission within the wider community.
ECDC: “limited evidence that schools driving transmission of COVID-19 … however there are indications community transmission is imported into or reflected in school setting.”
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/COVID-19-schools-transmission-August%202020.pdf
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/COVID-19-schools-transmission-August%202020.pdf
WHO: “Public health measures in the community are essential to protect schools from amplifying transmission”
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/risk-comms-updates/update39-covid-and-schools.pdf
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/risk-comms-updates/update39-covid-and-schools.pdf
SAGE says school closures could have “moderate” impact, but “low confidence” because “unclear how much schools contribute to community transmission”
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925856/S0770_NPIs_table__pivot_.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/925856/S0770_NPIs_table__pivot_.pdf
However, here is the crucial point: SAGE also admits it would result in “high” disruption and social, psychological and economic costs.
So could shutting down schools help reduce transmission? Possibly. And if all you cared about was driving down transmission and nothing else, then that might make sense.
But our argument has always been that any hypothetical epidemiological benefit of closing schools must be weighed against the certain massive social costs of doing so. Is it worth it overall? Unlikely.
https://www.childrenscommissioner.gov.uk/report/we-dont-need-no-education/
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https://www.childrenscommissioner.gov.uk/report/we-dont-need-no-education/
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