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Honored to be joining @WVTM13 as an election night analyst. As it relates to the Senate Race between @SenDougJones and @TTuberville, I will be looking at four key areas for clues on how the evening will go. (1/6)
First, what is the total number of votes cast statewide? In 2018, the @ALGOP produced +300,000 above the historical average of 1.4 million in an Alabama midterm election (i.e. 1.7 million total votes in the Governor's Race). Will this be replicated in 2020? (2/6)
@JohnHMerrill believes so and has predicted upwards of 2.5 million votes which would surpass 2016 by nearly 400,000 and 2018 by 700,000. It is important to note that under the leadership of @RepEngland70, the @aldemocrats have registered tens of thousands of new voters. (3/6)
Second, how many people chose straight party ticket voting? In 2010, it was 48%. In 2012, it was 52%. In 2016, it was 55% and in 2018, it was 65%. In 2018, 661,898 people voted straight @algop and 460,408 voted straight @aldemocrats. (4/6)
Third, as @lyman_brian described in today's article, how many votes can @SenDougJones bank in the urban counties to offset @TTuberville advantages in rural counties? In 2017, it was nearly 200,000 votes from Jefferson, Montgomery, Madison, Mobile and Tuscaloosa Counties (5/ 6)
Lastly, can @SenDougJones mitigate the margins of @TTuberville in places like Baldwin and Shelby counties were there are huge @algop majorities? He did this very well in 2017. I look forward to joining @WVTM13 tonight for the latest in election coverage and analysis. (6/6)
