Yesterday's electoral college update focused on the six core battlegrounds -- AZ, FL, MI, NC, PA & WI (all remain in the Biden column) -- but the final projection will be out later today and FHQ will update as states go final.
https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11220.html

These will come in alphabetical order...
[Margins -- Strong: >10 points, Lean: 5-10 points, Toss Up: <5 points]

FHQ Final Projection: Alabama -- Strong Trump
https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Alaska -- Lean Trump
https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Arizona -- Toss Up Biden
[Flip: Red to Blue]
https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Arkansas -- Strong Trump
https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: California -- Strong Biden
https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Colorado -- Strong Biden
https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Connecticut -- Strong Biden
https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Delaware -- Strong Biden
https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Florida -- Toss Up Biden
[Flip from Red to Blue]
https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Georgia -- Toss Up Biden
[Flip from Red to Blue]
https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Guam -- Just kidding
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Hawaii -- Strong Biden
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Idaho -- Strong Trump
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Illinois -- Strong Biden
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Indiana -- Strong Trump
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Iowa -- Toss Up Trump
[Likely to end up the projected closest state on the Trump side of the partisan line]
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Kansas -- Lean Trump
[NOTE: KS has been on the line between Strong/Lean at FHQ but remains a Lean Trump]
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Kentucky -- Strong Trump
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Louisiana -- Strong Trump
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Maine -- Strong Biden
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: ME CD1 -- Strong Biden
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: ME CD2 -- Toss Up Biden
[NOTE: Flip from Red to Blue]
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Maryland -- Strong Biden
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Massachusetts -- Strong Biden
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Michigan -- Lean Biden
[NOTE: Flip from Red to Blue]
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Minnesota -- Lean Biden
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Mississippi -- Strong Trump
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Missouri -- Lean Trump
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Montana -- Lean Trump
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Nebraska -- Strong Trump
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: NE CD2 -- Lean Biden
[NOTE: Flip from Red to Blue]
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Nevada -- Toss Up Biden
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: New Hampshire -- Strong Biden
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: New Jersey -- Strong Biden
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: New Mexico -- Strong Biden
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: New York -- Strong Biden
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: North Carolina -- Toss Up Biden
[NOTE: Flip from Red to Blue]
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: North Dakota -- Strong Trump
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Ohio -- Toss Up Trump
[NOTE: OH moves off the Watch List on Election Day]
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Oklahoma -- Strong Trump
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Oregon -- Strong Biden
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Pennsylvania -- Lean Biden
[NOTE: Flip from Red to Blue]
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Rhode Island -- Strong Biden
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: South Carolina -- Lean Trump
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: South Dakota -- Strong Trump
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Tennessee -- Strong Trump
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Texas -- Toss Up Trump
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Utah -- Strong Trump
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Vermont -- Strong Biden
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Virginia -- Strong Biden
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Washington -- Strong Biden
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Washington, DC -- Strong Biden
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: West Virginia -- Strong Trump
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Wisconsin -- Lean Biden
[NOTE: Flip from Red to Blue]
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

FHQ Final Projection: Wyoming -- Strong Trump
https://frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

In the end, the FHQ electoral college projection remains as it has since Georgia jumped the partisan line onto Biden turf on October 23.
Biden 351
Trump 187
https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

I'll confess that I'm a bit surprised that there were not any changes given the influx of polling data over the last week. But states that were close to changing hands backed away from the partisan line all week.
https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

What's remarkable is how the projections on the state level changed from 2016. I built the table in the update today on the 2016 version and Biden increased Clinton's projected margin in all the 2016 blue states (and the ones he is projected to flip).
https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

But it was close. Wisconsin is tipped only a few tenths of a point more toward Biden than it was in 2016 for Clinton in the final update.
https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

Obviously, Trump lost ground in the states that are projected to flip, but he did not do so across the board. In some of the reddest states his projected margin increased from 2016 to now. But he did lose ground in 10 states.
https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html

The moves on both sides are yet further evidence of the swing toward Democrats in the last four years and how the share of undecideds has shrunk over the two cycles.
https://www.frontloadinghq.com/2020/11/the-electoral-college-map-11320.html