THREAD/ Election Day is finally here! Here’s a round-up of some of our election polling from the last week.

First up, the final update to our MRP election model has…

ELECTORAL COLLEGE
Biden 364 / Trump 174

POPULAR VOTE
Biden 53.2% / Trump 44.3%

https://today.yougov.com/2020-presidential-election?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=US_presidential_MRP
The final Economist/YouGov poll, in field Oct 31 – Nov 2, shows...

ALREADY VOTED
Biden - 61%
Trump - 36%

STILL TO VOTE
Biden - 56%
Trump - 38%

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/11/02/joe-biden-national-lead-final?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=final_economist
There has been much examination of possible ‘Shy Trump’ voters at this election. New YouGov analysis finds no evidence that Trump supporters are any more 'shy' about their vote than Biden voters https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/11/02/trump-biden-voters-shy?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=shy_trump_voters
Trump voters no more ‘shy’ than Biden voters | YouGov

About the same number of Biden and Trump supporters said they “never” discuss politics with other people.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/11/02/trump-biden-voters-shy?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=shy_trump_voters
With record postal voting because of COVID-19, the results this year will take longer to count in previous years.

71% of voters say that’s ok, saying it’s more important that all voters are counted even if this drags the process out

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/11/02/all-votes-must-be-counted?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=all_votes_must_be_counted
Half of voters (51%) think Donald Trump won’t concede if he loses the election. This rises to 73% among Biden voters.

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/11/02/half-voters-think-trump-wont-concede-if-he-loses-e?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=trump_wont_concede
Going into the election, Biden is seen as better on all issues except crime and the economy

Environment (+21 Biden lead)
Race relations (+17)
COVID (+14)
Health care (+12)
Foreign policy (+7)
Immigration (+5)
Crime (0)
Economy (-1)

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/11/02/biden-trump-issues-economy?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=candidates_issues_final
Whoever wins the presidential election, voters think protests are likely.

81% expect protests if Biden wins
51% expect protests if Trump wins

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/11/03/post-election-violence-poll?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=election_violence
Democrats and Republicans will be more relieved than excited should their chosen candidate win

DEMOCRATS
80% relieved if Biden wins
56% excited

REPUBLICANS
70% relieved if Trump wins
59% excited

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/11/02/voters-relieved-excited-angry?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=voter_emotions
Whoever wins, the results may be viewed with suspicion

61% of Republicans would consider a Trump defeat evidence that the election was rigged

58% of Dems think the most important explanation for a Biden loss would be that Republicans stole the election

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/11/02/half-republicans-are-certain-donald-trump-going-wi?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=voter_certainty
This election campaign, voters think there has been too much discussion about…

Hunter Biden (48%)
Russia (32%)
COVID-19 (31%)

…and not enough about…

Climate change (47%)
Healthcare (44%)
Immigration (44%)

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/10/28/climate-change-tops-list-issues-voters-say-havent-?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=website_article&utm_campaign=election_issues_talked_enough
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