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The real danger for the country isn’t the election results, it’s the reaction to, and the refusal to accept the results. For more than four years, Trump and the Right Wing Media Echo Chamber have conditioned his supporters to believe the election is “rigged”. They believe it….1/
In a recent thread about collective election anxiety/PTSD, I wrote that “one half the country doesn’t believe in evidence, the other half can’t trust it.” 2/ https://twitter.com/Nick_Carmody/status/1318546061485428736
This couldn’t more evident than by the fact that 87 percent of Trump supporters believe he will win re-election, despite the fact that… 3/ https://www.newsweek.com/trump-supporters-more-confident-election-victory-biden-supporters-polling-suggests-1542945
…the empirical data that shows Biden *should* win easily. This has resulted in http://fivethirtyeight.com calculating that Trump has only a 10% chance of winning. To be clear, 10% is a non-zero number, much like the 30% chance that Trump had in 2016. 4/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
But the real problem isn’t necessarily about low probabilities, the real problem…..or more accurately, the danger…..lies in the pathologically unrealistic expectations of the cult of Trump: 90% of them have been conned into thinking that a 10% probability is a “sure thing”. 5/
Imagine if 60+ million Americans packed into every Riverboat Casino along the Mississippi River to bet their “life savings” on what they were told would be a “sure thing” bet.
Imagine if 90% were convinced they’d win.
Now imagine that the bet didn’t come in. 6/
Imagine if 90% were convinced they’d win.
Now imagine that the bet didn’t come in. 6/
What would happen in that scenario? The gap between expectations and reality would likely result in people revolting over having been conned/cheated out of their life savings. It might result in some of those river boats ending up on the bottom of the Mississippi River. 7/
Bringing this back to the election, Trump and the Right Wing Media Echo Chamber are the pathologically dishonest conmen who sold four years worth of “can’t lose” tickets onto those riverboats…which created pathologically unrealistic expectations…. 8/
…..which conned tens of millions of people into betting their “life savings” (ego/identity) on a Sociopath whose convinced them that culture war jihadism (complete with “suicide bomber”-like Covid self-sacrifices) will bring back an alternate reality that no longer exists ...9/
The difference in real life: the “Riverboats” represent the already weakened institutions of democracy. And as has been seen with Trump’s 2016 invitation for Russian interference, the Ukrainian “high crimes and misdemeanors” quid pro quo, & his recent pre-election rhetoric,...10/
…..Trump will do anything and everything to send the pillars of democracy to the proverbial bottom of the Mississippi River in order to self-preserve. 11/ https://twitter.com/Nick_Carmody/status/1119736855795097600
Trump will play on the expectations that he has created.
If Trump gets an early vote count lead, he will claim victory in that state, and attempt to get the secretary of state to stop counting… 12/
If Trump gets an early vote count lead, he will claim victory in that state, and attempt to get the secretary of state to stop counting… 12/
….. If that is unsuccessful, and votes continue to come in and erase his lead, Trump will claim victimhood and fraud.
The Right Wing media will promote this narrative, the cowardly congressional Republicans will back it or remain silent, and his supporters will believe it. 13/
The Right Wing media will promote this narrative, the cowardly congressional Republicans will back it or remain silent, and his supporters will believe it. 13/
The greater the disparity between reality & expectations...
...and the greater their feeling of grievance over the perception of the election being stolen from Trump/them...
...the greater the risk for civil unrest.
That is exactly what Trump desires.14/ https://twitter.com/Nick_Carmody/status/1251103630419062784
...and the greater their feeling of grievance over the perception of the election being stolen from Trump/them...
...the greater the risk for civil unrest.
That is exactly what Trump desires.14/ https://twitter.com/Nick_Carmody/status/1251103630419062784
Relevant threads: https://twitter.com/Nick_Carmody/status/1239863489570766854
Relevant thread: https://twitter.com/Nick_Carmody/status/1225030897184886786
Just added this thread as an article here (no paywall): https://www.patreon.com/posts/43492409
