I'm going nail up a few theses about the 2020 election. I'm curious how correct or incorrect they will seem 24 hours from now.

1) Trump's 2016 victory was due to most voters being turned off by both candidates, and a critical margin being willing to give the unknown a chance. As an incumbent, Trump couldn't rely on this dynamic to win a second term.

2) Trump desperately wanted to run against Sanders, and paint it as a choice between him and far-left socialism. African-American voters in the Democratic primary denied him this. He tried to run with it anyway, against Biden, but it just didn't resonate with most voters.

3) COVID-19 changed few people's minds about Trump, but it crystalized their misgivings and intensified their disfavor, connecting it with their daily lives. It also robbed Trump of his most persuasive argument, which was the economy.

4) If 2016 was the year of the shy Trump voter, 2020 was the year of the shy anti-Trump voter: women who were fed up with the guy, but didn't want to quarrel openly with their husbands over it.

5) By trying to suppress voter turnout, Republicans ended up driving record voter turnout - against them.

6) Republicans will try to pretend they never knew who Donald Trump was (not unlike how, for different reasons, they try to pretend they never supported George W Bush). But the legacy of his populist appeal will linger, encouraging others to try to recreate the magic - and fail.

7) A Biden victory will delay a debate over the future of the Electoral College - but it will return.

8) It's possible that COVID-19 will have a marginal but significant impact on the elderly vote, which made a key contribution to Trump's victory in 2016. But natural demographic attrition had already diminished that base of electoral support.

9) Trump's response to the summer's protests and riots helped solidify his support with his base. But it alienated a lot of voters outside that base, who saw him as only further aggravating the situation.

10) The Supreme Court nomination, to replace RBG, was a political wash: it brought home some conservatives, but also motivated liberal opponents. Of course, its more substantive impact - on any election lawsuits, and on broader social issues - remains to be seen.

11) The biggest missed opportunity in Trump's term of office was the failure to enact a major infrastructure program. It would have been hard for Democrats to oppose, and would have consolidated his public persona as a successful "builder" and businessman.

12) Republicans will try to write off Trump's defeat as solely a product of his personal flaws, ignoring their own role in excusing and enabling those flaws, and the serious consequences those flaws had for policy and governing.

13) If Trump wins, on the other hand, we have entered a completely new era in American politics, because new norms have been established and endorsed by the electorate. Trump will feel himself unrestrained and act in ways none of us have seen so far.