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Colts-Lions Week 8 recap (thread).
Aside from the general highlights, I'll dive into a few areas of focus:
1) What's going on with the run game?
2) Reich play action tendency
3) Darius Leonard (and other strong D performances)
Aside from the general highlights, I'll dive into a few areas of focus:
1) What's going on with the run game?
2) Reich play action tendency
3) Darius Leonard (and other strong D performances)
Per usual, let's start with how the Colts stack up with the rest of the league. As the offense has improved, the Colts have moved to the right, joining a set of really good teams.
We'll see if the Colts can maintain this position over the next few (tough) games.
We'll see if the Colts can maintain this position over the next few (tough) games.
Let's start with the offense since that has been the source of statistical improvement over the last two games.
In the last 2 games, Rivers has posted 67.5% comp%, 8.2 Y/A, 6 TDs, and 1 INT. Great numbers from the passing game.
In the last 2 games, Rivers has posted 67.5% comp%, 8.2 Y/A, 6 TDs, and 1 INT. Great numbers from the passing game.
However, the running game has continued to struggle. This week, they ran 39 times for 119 yards (3.1 ypc). If not for a strong finish in the 4th quarter, the running game would have been below 3 ypc.
The Colts went from 12th in ypc last year to last. So what's happening there?
The Colts went from 12th in ypc last year to last. So what's happening there?
Several different factors are inhibiting the Colts running game.
1) Yards after contact
2) OL not winning & not getting to 2nd level
3) Running against stacked boxes
#3 wasn't as much of an issue as it was in prior games, so I'll focus on #1 and #2 today.
1) Yards after contact
2) OL not winning & not getting to 2nd level
3) Running against stacked boxes
#3 wasn't as much of an issue as it was in prior games, so I'll focus on #1 and #2 today.
Jonathan Taylor ranks 48th in the NFL in missed tackle rate. We saw it right away on Sunday.
Looking at the OL, pay attention to the initial blocks here. They don’t get push and nobody gets to the 2nd level. Can you blame Taylor for being tentative here?
Contrast the OL execution here, as Smith and Kelly get to the 2nd level. That’s the difference between 3 yard gains and 8+ yard gains.
Way too much of this on Sunday. Zero push. Lions big bodies contested the LOS and kept LBs clean.
Colts OL finally kicked into gear in the 4th quarter. Two stellar drives to close it out.
LB sheds Nelson’s block, but it was progress that he even got to the 2nd level here.
LB sheds Nelson’s block, but it was progress that he even got to the 2nd level here.
Putting it all together, Wilkins breaks tackles and Nelson gets to the 2nd level for a nice gain.
Looking ahead, the Colts will need to get Wilkins more carries, but a lot of the run game will come down to the ability of the OL to generate push and get to the 2nd level.
Now for an area that I’ve been harping on: play action. Two things really stuck out to me.
1) The Lions didn’t respect the run game enough to be influenced by play action.
2) Reich preferred to use play action to draw the Lions in so he could exploit them outside.
1) The Lions didn’t respect the run game enough to be influenced by play action.
2) Reich preferred to use play action to draw the Lions in so he could exploit them outside.
Burton tripping didn’t help, but pay attention to the inside LBs. They don’t bite at all on the fake.
Again, the LBs don’t bite at all on the fake. Luckily, Old Man Rivers was able to extend this play.
With his play action calls this week, Reich tended to try and exploit the Lions outside rather than behind the LBs. Here is a good example to Doyle.
This goes against the analytics, but my takeaway was that the Lions didn’t respect the run enough to make the play action game viable. Colts really need to get the run game going.
Turning our attention to Rivers now. Another really strong game. His numbers were hurt a bit by drops, but he was still highly efficient and effective.
As mentioned before, keeping Rivers clean is the most important factor. Clean pocket in front of Rivers allows him to step up and deliver a strike to Johnson even with some pressure off the edge.
He’s been on another level pre-snap. Sees the matchup he likes with Hines and drops it in the bucket. Beautiful.
Back foot dime to Burton on 3rd down. Missed by a hair.
But protection is key at the end of the day. Big 3rd and long conversion here to Johnson because Rivers has time.
Great awareness here. Notice the DBs at the top of the screen. There’s confusion and an extra defender goes to the WRs. Rivers with the quick snap takes advantage for the walk in TD.
And this is just an absolute dime to Pascal. Not much to say here.
Before getting to the defense, I want to note how clever the play design was of Hines first TD. Man coverage. Hines breaks off his ghost action and notice his man doesn’t see until it’s too late to recover. So smart.
Now for the defense. Stafford put up some yards (a lot of which were late), but this game came down to what Eberflus wants from his scheme: stop the run, then get after the passer.
One interesting change: a lot more blitzes this week. Season blitz rate jumped from 13% to 18%.
One interesting change: a lot more blitzes this week. Season blitz rate jumped from 13% to 18%.
But first for the run D. Every level contributed, but things start up front.
Here’s Buckner shooting the gap and blowing up this play.
Here’s Buckner shooting the gap and blowing up this play.
Here’s Stewart beating a double team for the stuff.
Stewart again. This time with great quickness to get into the backfield.
LBs did a great job as well. DL holds up and LBs track to the outside here.
This looks like a run blitz. Colts execute to perfection.
This is an interesting look. Notice Willis come down to the LOS on the right. I think we see some of this look against Baltimore this weekend.
Now for step 2: rush the passer. Colts were much more consistent in generating pressure this week. Higher blitz rate certainly helped, but so did putting Lewis in the starting lineup. Great game from him.
Lewis with the sack, but also notice Buckner. Leonard and Willis blitzing as well to help set up single blocks for the DL.
Lewis with his other sack, but notice Leonard on the blitz. Lewis does a good job recognizing the step up from Leonard’s pressure.
And sometimes you only need 3. Great rush from Autry here.
Another great rush from Autry without additional blitz help.
If the Colts can get pressure like they did this week, it will help immensely the rest of the year.
If the Colts can get pressure like they did this week, it will help immensely the rest of the year.
Now for an area of concern. Walker has been a rough spot in coverage in recent weeks and he hurt them again on Sunday. Colts need to focus on nickel personnel with Leonard and Okereke at LB.
Looks like Cover 2 here with Walker at MLB. He jumps the short route and leaves the middle wide open.
It’s possible that’s how Eberflus drew it up, but I’m doubtful.
It’s possible that’s how Eberflus drew it up, but I’m doubtful.
Lastly, a shoutout to Darius Leonard. He’s such a special player and it was great to see him back out there.
Pretty sure he’s blitzing here, but he sniffs out the screen. He’s so damn smart.
Pretty sure he’s blitzing here, but he sniffs out the screen. He’s so damn smart.
And so quick
And he can strip sack as well as any edge in the league
Well that's that. Another nice win from the Colts to move to 5-2 and atop the AFC South.
Big game this week against Baltimore, but the point of emphasis doesn't change. Defensively, stop the run, then get after the passer. Offensively, protect Rivers first and foremost.
Big game this week against Baltimore, but the point of emphasis doesn't change. Defensively, stop the run, then get after the passer. Offensively, protect Rivers first and foremost.
