Read on Twitter
Will Covid bring Trump down today? @AnjaNeundorf and I just fielded a survey experiment in the US, and it looks like it might. 2 main takes: older voters strongly react to the mismanagement of the pandemic, & the economic debacle has significant effects across partisan groups 1/
When priming respondents on the highest death toll in the world and the political management of the crisis, we find strong heterogeneous effects: Trump's estimated vote share among those aged 55-75 can be close to 30% lower (!) than peple of the same age in our control group. 2/
And what about different aspects of the crisis? We randomly assign respondents to information on the current economic crisis, its political management, or the Chinese origin of the virus (vs a control). We find significant & negative effects of the economy on Trump voting. 3/
Obviously, these micro-findings will only affect the outcome if clustered in the right states. The 'revenge of the old' finding could determine the outcome in Florida, but we'll see. Classical economic voting and politics of competence theories are at play in #USElections2020. 4/
Thanks so much to @DeltapollUK, @JoeTwyman & @BritishAcademy_ for making this research possible. If you are interested in the design and upcoming paper please see our pre-registration here: https://osf.io/vdh8x . 5/
Of potential interest to: @drjennings @ProfJaneGreen @MaryStegmaier @RayDuch @r_dassonneville @CatherineDVries @sarahobolt @jordimunozm @cescamat @DamienBol @kostasmatakos @guygrossman @vavreck @DebraLeiter & others. 6/
