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If my work has made an impact on your midset on housing. It's to always ignore this #(A## 
https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1323605848187428867
https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1323605848187428867
Real home prices from 2012-2020 look nothing like what we saw from 2002-2005
A big reason for that is that we had no speculation demand in this previous expansion which I always said will be the weakest housing recovery ever.
When I said, we won't see the 300 level broken on the purchase application data until the years 2020-2024 because that is the only period when demand would get us there. Like clockwork, we hit 300 this year.
The bigger call was that we won't see total housing starts open up a year at 1,500,000 until the years 2020-2024 either, and still, we haven't hit that level to start a year yet.
We are working our way there but not just yet! Why? because demand never warranted that much construction, ever.
On another note, new home sales data went parabolic this year. This data will moderation, just don't overact to that even when it happens.
Housing data is way too wild this year, but I give you certain simple data points to follow to know when housing is getting weaker. https://www.housingwire.com/articles/beware-of-housing-market-crash-headlines/
