Today's election is a referendum on Trump's "American First" policy.

When @JoeBiden wins (yep, I'm calling it now), how much will US foreign policy truly change?

Let's break it down.

[THREAD]
There is no denying that perceptions of the US will change, perhaps immediately. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/09/15/us-image-plummets-internationally-as-most-say-country-has-handled-coronavirus-badly/
U.S. Image Plummets Internationally as Most Say Country Has Handled Coronavirus Badly

In several countries, favorable views of the U.S. are at their lowest point since the Center began polling on this topic two decades ago.

https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/09/15/us-image-plummets-internationally-as-most-say-country-has-handled-coronavirus-badly/
Indeed, like the transition from Bush to Obama, should Biden prepare for a trip to Stockholm? https://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/10/world/10nobel.html
Surprise Nobel for Obama Stirs Praise and Doubts (Published 2009)

The Nobel Peace Prize, which President Obama described as a “call to action,” was an extraordinary recognition for so early in a presidential term and a potential political liability at home.

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/10/world/10nobel.html
There's also no doubt that rhetoric will change (we SHOULDN'T SEE ALL CAPS TWEETS IN MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT from Biden)... https://www.vox.com/21504280/trumps-2020-campaign-too-online
Trump’s presidential campaign is Too Online

President Trump’s campaign is shaped by, and aimed at, an audience largely existing on Twitter.

https://www.vox.com/21504280/trumps-2020-campaign-too-online
...that the expertise of the folks in key diplomatic positions will improve (since Biden will restock the State Department)... https://www.politico.eu/article/joe-bidens-us-foreign-policy/
Joe Biden vs. the American foreign policy establishment

Who’s likely to be who in foreign policy should the former vice president win the US presidential election.

https://www.politico.eu/article/joe-bidens-us-foreign-policy/
...and, unlike Trump, Biden himself (who is a foreign policy expert) seems interested in not just "being President" but "doing President". https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/how-trump-has-made-campaigning-part-of-the-presidency
How Trump has made campaigning 'part of the presidency'

President Donald Trump flipped Florida, the largest swing state in the nation, from blue to red in 2016. He picked Florida as the site for his official 2020 re-election kickoff rally on Tuesday.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/how-trump-has-made-campaigning-part-of-the-presidency
But how will policy actually change? 🤔
First, there are policies Biden will change back to the Obama-era status quo:

- Rejoin Iran deal

- Rejoin Paris Accord

- Collaborate on pandemic response & support @WHO

- arms control treaties w/ 🇷🇺

- Eliminate new tariffs (but not on 🇨🇳) & revitalize the @wto
Most of these policies are "low hanging fruit", as they simply require changing the executive decisions made by Trump (i.e. no need for Congressional approval) https://www.ft.com/content/dc11d51e-71bb-46ac-9dfb-6e2b5f43b452
Biden plans to reset ‘America First’ foreign policy

Democrat hopes to rebuild diplomatic ties by reversing several of Trump’s signature moves

https://www.ft.com/content/dc11d51e-71bb-46ac-9dfb-6e2b5f43b452
Second, there are policies where Trump has continuity with Obama (despite rhetoric), so Biden will leave alone:

- continue (but perhaps further reduce) presence in 🇦🇫, 🇸🇾, &🇮🇶

- pressure on @NATO contributions

- encourage normalization of 🇮🇱 w/ neighbors
- Pressure on 🇷🇺 (despite his love of Putin, the Trump administration has actually been pretty tough on Russia) https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1322835386788446213
- Continue trade talks w/ EU https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/relaunching-the-transatlantic-trade-agenda-a-european-perspective/
Relaunching the transatlantic trade agenda: a European perspective - Atlantic Council

The transatlantic partnership must change because the EU-US trade relationship, multilateralism approach, and power balance have changed.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/relaunching-the-transatlantic-trade-agenda-a-european-perspective/
Whether such continuity is due to "The Blob"/"Deep State"/Other is a conversation for another day https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/build-better-blob
Build a Better Blob

For those who truly want to reshape Washington’s overweening and militarized foreign policy, the best approach is not to engage in name‐​calling but to work to replace the existing foreign policy...

https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/build-better-blob
Third, expect Biden to continue the direction taken by Trump on two BIG policy areas:
(1) Relations will continue to be tense with 🇨🇳 (see rhetoric about "Alliance of Democracies"/"League of Democracies") https://warontherocks.com/2020/10/competitors-adversaries-or-enemies-unpacking-the-sino-american-relationship/
Competitors, Adversaries, or Enemies? Unpacking the Sino-American Relationship - War on the Rocks

“Competitor?” “Adversary?” “Enemy?” Which of these terms best describes U.S.-Chinese relations? The Washington Post reporter Susan Page posed this

https://warontherocks.com/2020/10/competitors-adversaries-or-enemies-unpacking-the-sino-american-relationship/
(2) With 🇰🇵, Trump "broke the ice" by trying a different approach. He visited Kim Jong Un and, well, nothing really happened. Admittedly, Trump didn't follow up on the potential of that visit, so that is something that Biden needs to correct https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/what-donald-trump-should-have-done-north-korea%E2%80%94and-what-next-president-should-do
What Donald Trump Should Have Done With North Korea—and What the Next

From the author: There is a way ahead. Rather than pursue complete elimination of all of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, the Trump administration would aim for a more modest trade as at least an

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/korea-watch/what-donald-trump-should-have-done-north-korea%E2%80%94and-what-next-president-should-do
Finally, there are two areas when its possible to see Biden take a different direction than either Trump or Obama:
(1) On immigration, I could also see Biden not just undoing Trump's immigration restrictions, but using the reset as as reason to reform immigration policy https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-immigration-debate-0
The U.S. Immigration Debate

Comprehensive immigration reform has eluded Congress for years, moving controversial policy decisions into the executive and judicial branches of government.

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/us-immigration-debate-0
(2) On democracy promotion, there are some who fear that Biden will be more interventionist than either Trump or Obama (i.e. he'll follow through on red-lines and seek democracy promotion)... https://mobile.twitter.com/dbessner/status/1320009537038868480
...though others think the most extreme policies are unlikely. https://twitter.com/LiliTorok/status/1322933038494457861
In sum, while it's true that Biden will attempt a "reset" of US foreign policy & will be able to take some "low hanging fruit", there will be several points of foreign policy continuity.

[END]
You can follow @ProfPaulPoast.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:
Those who think consciousness raising & movement building are disconnected, or even a distraction from electoral politics have not paid attention to the history of social change.In this thread, we
Read more
The 2020s will be known as the Remote Work decadeA few predictions of what is likely to emerge[ a thread ] Third Space: Office and Working from Home will
Read more
1/29: Have you ever had a concept explained to you that helps frame complex issues you’ve been wrestling with and opens your eyes to new possibilities? A concept that I
Read more
By continuing to use the site, you are consenting to the use of cookies as explained in our Cookie Policy to improve your experience.