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One small casualty of this election: the RealClearPolitics average. It's never been perfect, but I've cited it in the past as a simple no-questions-asked average. Unfortunately, that's not possible anymore.
RCP's averages this cycle just haven't been a fair average of the polling that's out there. Instead, cut offs are fairly deliberately set to show better results for Trump.
Trump may win in the end, but that won't vindicate RCP.
If Trump wins the polls were really, really wrong. I'll certainly be nothing but honest about that fact.
But you don't get that impression from RCP, since they're not fairly reflecting the polls.
If Trump wins the polls were really, really wrong. I'll certainly be nothing but honest about that fact.
But you don't get that impression from RCP, since they're not fairly reflecting the polls.
Just go down the list of each RCP average this morning, and ask 'are the cutoff dates consistent?' and 'who would benefit if the cutoff date was a day earlier.'
The answers are 'no' and Biden.
The answers are 'no' and Biden.
This has been true for a while now, but they really took it up a couple of notches over the weekend. And unfortunately it's enough that I won't be using the site anymore for citing polling averages.
I'm sympathetic to the challenges they face in deciding what polls to include. And I think their rules are modestly more coherent than folks give credit. But the cutoffs right now serve one purpose. Anyone comparing say US v PA avg can tell what it is https://twitter.com/bwreed/status/1323601940228562944?s=20
