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So, at last it's prediction time for this once-in-a-generation election. I've sketched out three scenarios, courtesy of @270toWin's excellent predictor tool.
(Key is: smudged blue/red = Biden/Trump lead of 0-2 points, light blue/red = 2-5 points, medium = 5-10, dark = 10+)
(Key is: smudged blue/red = Biden/Trump lead of 0-2 points, light blue/red = 2-5 points, medium = 5-10, dark = 10+)
1. Plausible Biden victory: He wins the "Blue Wall", and several of the toss-ups. Thanks to voter suppression and some "shy Trump" voters, NC and FL (and other purple states) remain just out of reach.
2. Plausible Trump victory: Not unlike 2016, the toss-ups narrowly go Trump's way, though Biden just about hangs onto NV and the Upper Midwest, potentially by even fewer points than I've suggested here. This is the scenario I'm bracing for, personally.
3. The "Of Course, It's 2020" scenario: AZ and PA have the same degree of polling accuracy as 2016 (i.e., very high and very low respectively), which puts Trump over the line in the latter but not the former.
Whether the whole election is a tie or the narrowest possible Biden victory then comes down to who wins Nebraska's 2nd congressional district and its 1 Electoral College vote, so basically the city of Omaha, NE. #Nebraska
Of course, this assumes that Trump won't try to overturn the whole election by using pliant courts to halt mail-in ballot counting in the coming days. Especially if the early count shows him ahead in swing states. That's the real nightmare scenario. #USElection2020 #Vote2020 