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Post- #Election2020 
analysis will be never ending, and pundits will say how they knew the result and trends all along.
So, as someone that called Trump winning in '16, thought I'd share my post-game analysis before full-time and explain why I'm calling it for Biden.
A thread
analysis will be never ending, and pundits will say how they knew the result and trends all along.So, as someone that called Trump winning in '16, thought I'd share my post-game analysis before full-time and explain why I'm calling it for Biden.
A thread
1) Discipline of the Biden campaign:
Many were worried about Biden's propensity for gaffes, but he's largely stayed avoided really bad gaffes, sidestepped controversy, and stayed firmly on message - consistently beating away at bad COVID response.
Many were worried about Biden's propensity for gaffes, but he's largely stayed avoided really bad gaffes, sidestepped controversy, and stayed firmly on message - consistently beating away at bad COVID response.
Also, just look at the avidsd on Biden's TW. The emotive messaging, smart and behavioural centric copy is just fantastic campaign work and such a stark contrast to Trump's profile of all caps, non-sensical rants. They even got an Eminem vote vid! https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1323320216038776832?s=20
2) Voter turnout:
In 2016, there were many Dems lured or lulled into not voting. Whether from Russian interference on social media to encourage people NOT to vote, coz of H hate or whether people were so confident Hillary would win regardless, then many Dems simply didn’t vote
In 2016, there were many Dems lured or lulled into not voting. Whether from Russian interference on social media to encourage people NOT to vote, coz of H hate or whether people were so confident Hillary would win regardless, then many Dems simply didn’t vote
This year, the anti-Trump sentiment is so strong among Dems (and many others) that they arent risking anything - turnout will be (to use Trump's 2016 mantra " 'uuuuge"). We're already seeing record breaking early and mail voting, expect that to continue
3) Painting Trump as weak, a loser and incompetent instead of just hating him:
The thing with Trump is, that his appeal isn't rationale, fact lead. It's a feeling and gut for many, the confidence he eschews as he spouts bile.
The thing with Trump is, that his appeal isn't rationale, fact lead. It's a feeling and gut for many, the confidence he eschews as he spouts bile.
The real damage the pandemic handling, himself getting COVID and his increasingly desperate rhetoric and twitter feed is that it's clear he's out of his depth and desperate. His attempted projections of strength are constantly undermined by the reality.
Even voters that want "law & order" are seeing the cognitive dissonance that - even though he's commander in chief right now - he can neither control the pandemic nor bring order to protests
4) 'Suburban women' are tired:
In 2016, a majority of white women voted for Trump ahead of Hillary. It turned out to be a defining demographic. The same wont be true in 2016. There's been too many indefensible statements and sexual misconduct allegations
In 2016, a majority of white women voted for Trump ahead of Hillary. It turned out to be a defining demographic. The same wont be true in 2016. There's been too many indefensible statements and sexual misconduct allegations
- and the 'suburban women' demo (as the media is talking about it) cant keep defending voting for him as they talk to their teenage daughters around the dinner table. Even Kellyanne Conway had to leave Trump's side due to family divisions he cause in the Republican household.
Of course George Conway's work with the @ProjectLincoln was a huge factor, but with everything we've seen on the TikToks of Claudia Conway, it's clear her daughter isn't onboard with her Trump affiliations either.
No one outside really knows fully what's happening in any household, but I bet there are a lot of households with tough mother and daughter conversations about what this president says and does when it comes to women. Trump is going to lose his majority among white women
5) Fracturing of the Republican party:
Trump has split the GOP. The republicans in office have propped up Trump and pushed through policies, but the more moderate wings of the party are done with it and are (very publicly) speaking out.
Trump has split the GOP. The republicans in office have propped up Trump and pushed through policies, but the more moderate wings of the party are done with it and are (very publicly) speaking out.
The @ProjectLincoln has done an incredible job of not just attack ads against Trump, but in ridiculing him and (as above) painting him like a loser. And now @cindymccain, John McCain's widow, has also come out in support of Biden.
6) Changing demographics in key states:
States like Texas are in play this year. That's driven by the fact Texas is the fastest growing state, driven by Hispanic communities + young ppl moving to growing start-up hotspots in the state. https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2018-10-11/in-texas-changing-demographics-could-have-political-implications
States like Texas are in play this year. That's driven by the fact Texas is the fastest growing state, driven by Hispanic communities + young ppl moving to growing start-up hotspots in the state. https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/articles/2018-10-11/in-texas-changing-demographics-could-have-political-implications
Side note on this: while the immediate political impact of COVID on Trump and the Republican party is obvious if they lose, then the other longer term impact that may have much longer lasting impact is if the pandemic pushes more people to move out of cities.
With the exception of 2004, Democrats have won the popular vote in every presidential election in the past 20 years, but only won the presidency twice with Obama. We of course always talk about how this often comes down to down to the Electoral College system...
...but it's important to remember the Electoral College votes going the way they do is often also heavily linked to the geography of certain demographic. Democrats tend to live in metropolitan, more densely populated cities that have fewer EVs compared to population size.
If more people form cities (who tend to skew Democratic) move further out as remote working becomes normalised, then they can start changing the rural demographics of typical republican strongholds and becoming majorities.
8) Who the pandemic affected:
I've mentioned suburban moms and harder to justify, but the other factor spurred by COVID against Trump is that job losses due to its mishandling have also disproportionately affected women and black people (double jeopardy for black women).
I've mentioned suburban moms and harder to justify, but the other factor spurred by COVID against Trump is that job losses due to its mishandling have also disproportionately affected women and black people (double jeopardy for black women).
9) The COVID19 Pandemic:
Don't really need to say more. You know it.
10) George Floyd and BLM:
If every other expression of racism and misogyny hasn't been enough, then Trump's response to the murder of George Floyd and BLM movement is what ends his presidency.
Don't really need to say more. You know it.
10) George Floyd and BLM:
If every other expression of racism and misogyny hasn't been enough, then Trump's response to the murder of George Floyd and BLM movement is what ends his presidency.
4 years ago, I bet money thinking I was right about a Trump win, but hoping to lose.
This year, I don't know if the polls are accurate, but I do think we're right to expect a Biden win. My real hope is that it's a clear Biden win called tonight, w/ no scope for court challenges
This year, I don't know if the polls are accurate, but I do think we're right to expect a Biden win. My real hope is that it's a clear Biden win called tonight, w/ no scope for court challenges
