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As I said on the podcast, the strange thing about this election is that Biden has been solidly ahead for the duration of the race, but instead of feeling hopeful, the people I talk to are mostly feeling terrified. Why is this? Well, there are a lot of reasons I think, and most 2/
of them are not to do with feeling that Trump is well placed to win this. I think we aknowledge Biden is likely to win the most votes both in the popular vote (near certain) and in the Electoral College (less certain, but probably). We worry about 1) The terrible consequences 3/
of the improbably event. If you believe (as I do) that Trump would spend a 2nd 4-year term finishing the work he has done so far at dismantling the Federal Government and America's democratic institutions. So a 1 in 10 chance that this will happen equates to awaiting a biopsy 4/
for a particularly fatal form of cancer. The doctors can tell us the odds of a good outcome are high, but that doesn't mean we'll rest easy while we wait for the results to come in. 2) Then, of course, having been so deeply shocked and blindsided in 2016 by the unexpected loss 5/
it's easy to tell ourselves horror stories about all the data being wrong - and there are genuinely a lot of known unknowns. How many Republican voters will turn out? In 2016 they got a surge of previously low propensity voters. can he do that again? 6/
Have pollsters really managed to correct for any possible challenges they face in polling Trump's coalition? (Yes, yes, we know about weighting for education. But we can't know if it's worked for sure until this test.) 7/
Uncertainty does a lot to feed anxiety, and there is still a lot in this election that feels uncertain. I highly commend to you this fascinating episode of @mindofstatepod talking about how we process ambiguous loss, which gets into some of this... https://mindofstate.com/ambiguous-loss-and-the-2020-pandemic/
And then there's the candidate himself. I like Joe Biden - I like him a bunch. Always have. But this is his third run at the Presidency, and there's a reason he didn't win the first two times. He is a good man, an outstanding politician, but he isn't the kind of movement defining
leader that Obama was in 2008. Or, indeed, that Trump was in 2016. His role here is as the acceptable face of normal politics - and that's valuable! It's comforting and Lord Knows we need the comfort. But it contrasts Trump's high energy malice with something that isn't designed
to stir the blood. This is what's allowed him to pull together such an exceptionally broad coalition - from AOC to the Lincoln project. It's electorally highly valuable! And admirable! But it doesn't allow us to overcome our anxieties for Obama-style hope and faith. It asks us to
take comfort in ending the nightmare before us now, but it doesn't do much work to rewrite the dream of a future America. I am FINE with that - it makes sense, and I was very happy to vote for that vision. But I think it might be partly fueling a lot of our anxieties.
4) And finally, actual physical fear has kept many of us in our homes trying to ward off a deadly virus - and this has prevented Democrats (and only Democrats - because the other side has not taken these restrictions seriously) from going out and doing the one thing that
creates the most positive feelings about our Democracy - we haven't been able to talk to our fellow citizens. No, or few, big rallies and local events. Phone calls instead of door knocks. No, or few, voter registration drives at neighbourhood festivals, no backyard fundraising
barbecues. We are all isolated in our fears, and isolated in our hopes. That has an impact - more so than I think we've reckoned with. Democracy is meant to be a great national conversation - a coming together of the citizenry. Instead, we are confronted by threats of violence
from the President's supporters, offset by... none of the togetherness we crave on the other side.
It's been such a tough year for democracy. On so many levels. Tough at the institutional level - and tough at the personal level. I get that. And people have done HEROIC work!
It's been such a tough year for democracy. On so many levels. Tough at the institutional level - and tough at the personal level. I get that. And people have done HEROIC work!
To the volunteers and organisers putting their best face onto the Zoom calls and virtual phone banks - I SEE YOU, I honor you, you are HEROES for this country. And I also know that this wasn't how you wanted it to be.
So... I want to acknowledge that hope is hard. I know that we are all worried about a lot of things - not just about winning the election, but about whether the transition of power will be smooth. About how Trump's more well armed and less reality bound supporters would react.
About the very serious problems that a Biden administration would face if/when inaugurated. Climate change, racial unrest, economic calamity, managing the virus. The best outcome here is still just a chance to fix things, not the solutions themselves.
SO: Here's what you need to remember. A nervous vote counts the same as a confident one. As long as you do the work through your anxieties, it's OK to feel the fears. As with every single thing in life that matters - parenting for instance - you just have to keep showing up.
Vote well, my friends. x
