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My final prediction on the US presidency: I give Biden a 90% chance. There is a decent amount of pro-Biden groupthink, but the arguments do really seem robust.
In general people seem to tell the truth to pollsters (which is quite surprising!). https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5383/donald-trump-usa-president-on-2021-01-21/
In general people seem to tell the truth to pollsters (which is quite surprising!). https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5383/donald-trump-usa-president-on-2021-01-21/
... and they are saying that they will vote Biden.
The 10% uncertainty mainly accounts for the chance that pollsters won't do their job properly and will collect biased samples.
Now I really hope Trump actually loses because I am going to look like an idiot if this is wrong.
The 10% uncertainty mainly accounts for the chance that pollsters won't do their job properly and will collect biased samples.
Now I really hope Trump actually loses because I am going to look like an idiot if this is wrong.
My value add here is that I read the arguments that the experts gave for their position and I can't find a flaw in their reasoning. And I often do disagree with experts ("epistemological trespassing").
OK, I'm also betting on this. About $1000 against Trump, with a $500 profit if he loses.
