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So a “few” thoughts about tomorrow.
Firstly, while a lot of people on both sides are seeing the race in the light of what happened in 2016 & are either very anxious on the dem side or sure Trump will win again on GoP side.
However, this election is quite different to 2016.
1/n
Firstly, while a lot of people on both sides are seeing the race in the light of what happened in 2016 & are either very anxious on the dem side or sure Trump will win again on GoP side.
However, this election is quite different to 2016.
1/n
In 2016 the race was quite volatile with lots of undecided voters, about 10%, right up until the end, plus another 5% going for 3rd parties. Trump was behind in the polling averages for most of the months leading up to the election but had some periods where the race tightened,
he even took the lead at some points. There was a very late swing towards Trump and a majority of those undecideds broke for Trump about 2-1.
The national polls were quite accurate. Clinton was ahead by 3.5% in the polls at the end and won by the national vote by 2.1%.
The national polls were quite accurate. Clinton was ahead by 3.5% in the polls at the end and won by the national vote by 2.1%.
However, in a few key states, particularly Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, they were off. Trump won these by less than 1% (about 70,000 votes in total) and these are the states that gave him the presidency.
In district level polling there were some warning signs.
In district level polling there were some warning signs.
These polling errors occurred for a few reasons. A lack of polls right near the end failed to capture the late swing where undecideds went for Trump, and a lack of weighting by education failed to pick up the number of non college-educated white voters who went for Trump.
In comparison, this year there has been a steady lead for Biden since October 2019, Trump has never come close to a tied race let alone leading as he did in 2016. Biden is up by 8.5% nationally right now, and this has only varied by about plus or minus 2% for many months.
What’s more, there are about half as many undecided voters and 3rd parties voters for Trump to shift to his column. Biden is above 50% nationally and also in many of the swing states.
And independent voters and undecideds have been consistently leaning towards Biden.
And independent voters and undecideds have been consistently leaning towards Biden.
At the district level, the data this time shows Trump in real trouble, esp. in the suburbs.
Polling firms have also learnt the lessons of 2016, many are now weighting by education plus the number of state-level polls is much higher. We have more good quality polling data to read
Polling firms have also learnt the lessons of 2016, many are now weighting by education plus the number of state-level polls is much higher. We have more good quality polling data to read
There simply needs to be massive polling errors far beyond what happened in 2016 in these states for Trump to win.
Not impossible, but highly unlikely.
And polling errors can go both ways, Obama’s results in 2012 for example were significantly better than the polls that year.
Not impossible, but highly unlikely.
And polling errors can go both ways, Obama’s results in 2012 for example were significantly better than the polls that year.
But Biden is also ahead in many other swing states that Trump won in 2016.
Arizona by 2.6%, Florida by 2.5% North Carolina by 1.9%, and Georgia by 0.9%.
Ohio, Iowa, and Texas are in play too, with Trump ahead by 0.5%, 1.4%, and 1.6% respectively.
So, Biden is in the box seat
Arizona by 2.6%, Florida by 2.5% North Carolina by 1.9%, and Georgia by 0.9%.
Ohio, Iowa, and Texas are in play too, with Trump ahead by 0.5%, 1.4%, and 1.6% respectively.
So, Biden is in the box seat
Trump might yet win, but it’s very hard to see how he can do that without massive polling errors.
The problem is more how the votes will be counted this year given the pandemic, with many people to vote by mail and this being disproportionately the case with Democratic voters.
The problem is more how the votes will be counted this year given the pandemic, with many people to vote by mail and this being disproportionately the case with Democratic voters.
Added to this is the different ways states count absentee and mail-in votes. Some start processing them (signature matching and making sure they are valid etc) before election day, some states even start counting them and release results them when polls close. eg FL, AZ and NC.
Other states don’t start counting or even processing them until election day and it might take a few days to see who wins. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are examples of this.
All this means we will see two “mirages” on election day.
One blue and one red.
All this means we will see two “mirages” on election day.
One blue and one red.
A “blue mirage” in states like Florida, North Carolina and Arizona where mail-in votes have been counted and released on election day.
Biden will take an early lead and republican votes cast on election day will catch up in the hours following the closure of polls.
Biden will take an early lead and republican votes cast on election day will catch up in the hours following the closure of polls.
And a “red mirage” in states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin where Republican votes cast on election day will be counted early and see Trump take a lead that democratic mail-in votes will slowly catch up.
Given that Biden winning any one of Florida, North Carolina, Texas and Arizona, means he is almost certain to win, and we will know these results within a few hours of polls closing, these are the states to watch tomorrow.
Florida polls close at 10am and we should know the winner by about 12-1pm unless it is very close.
North Carolina closes 30 mins later, Texas at 11am and Arizona at 12pm.
Biden does well in just one or two of these states and it’s all over.
North Carolina closes 30 mins later, Texas at 11am and Arizona at 12pm.
Biden does well in just one or two of these states and it’s all over.
If they are close or Trump wins, we will need to wait for MI, PA and WI to become clear.
Hopefully by late Wednesday night if Biden wins by large margins, Thursday or Friday if they are close.
Biden will still be in a good position at this point.
Hopefully by late Wednesday night if Biden wins by large margins, Thursday or Friday if they are close.
Biden will still be in a good position at this point.
If you really want to keep tabs on what’s happening early, look at the suburbs in Indianapolis where polls close at 9am our time. Tampa suburbs will do the same in FL.
If Biden sees large swings here, that likely means he will see similar swings in the mid west.
If Biden sees large swings here, that likely means he will see similar swings in the mid west.
In conclusion, if you don’t like the races I’d suggest putting a few bucks on Biden where he is around $1.50 at the bookies.
Pretty easy money compared to a horse race imo.
Pretty easy money compared to a horse race imo.
My prediction?
I think Biden will win all the swing states except for Texas which will give him 375 electoral votes to Trump's 163.
Iowa and Ohio are the trickiest in this prediction but I think the covid case rises seen there will put Biden over the top.
Texas is a reach imo
I think Biden will win all the swing states except for Texas which will give him 375 electoral votes to Trump's 163.
Iowa and Ohio are the trickiest in this prediction but I think the covid case rises seen there will put Biden over the top.
Texas is a reach imo
In the senate, I think the Democrats will get to 53-47 and in the house gain 8 seats or so seats to get to 240 -195.
Less than 24 hours, and then to the messy part, prying him from the oval office before he burns it all down!
Less than 24 hours, and then to the messy part, prying him from the oval office before he burns it all down!
