1/n) Election 2020 (Thread)
For most of the states (except 2: PA & WI) I was able to get a read on. As it stands right now I expect Biden to have 249 electoral votes & Trump's 259. (270 needed for a majority in the Electoral College)

#Election2020

2/n) Most pollsters have Biden ahead in Pennsylvania but gradually the state has moved towards Trump in last few days. I think in the end Trump might carry it with a small margin.

3/n) Irrespective of the result in Wisconsin (i.e. Biden win or Trump win in WI) This would give Trump 279 electoral votes which helps him win re-election.

4/n) At the moment as things stand right now WI is slightly trending blue which means that final tally could possibly be Trump 279 Biden 259

5/n) So with the scenario outlined in the thread above Trump would narrowly win re-election (Trump 279 Biden 259)

6/n) Now if Biden ends up winning PA then he ends up winning 269 votes which is good enough for a tie but not an outright win (more on the tie later).

7/n) Now if Biden ends up winning both PA & WI he wins 279 votes (vs 259 for Trump) and narrowly wins the election defeating Trump

8/n) Also if Trump wins both PA & WI he wins 289 electoral votes and comfortably wins the election (vs 249 for Biden)

9/n) Now if Biden wins PA & Trump wins WI we are looking at historical 269-269 tie in the electoral college. Since it's 2020 this is not out of the realm of possibilities given what we have faced during this crazy year!

10/n) In such a case Trump probably holds the advantage as there are more state delegations in the House which lean R.

11/n) In case of an unlikely electoral tie every state delegation gets 1 vote. Depending on the whether the number of House members from Rep or Dem are in the majority they will vote for Trump or Biden.

12/n) In the outgoing House while Dems have more members in general they have majorities in fewer states vs Reps . So this should in theory mean advantage for Trump

13/n) VP as per my recollection (happy to be corrected) is decided by the Senate. This could in theory mean P & VP from different parties which would be a big nightmare given the deep partisan divide that we are in today in the US. Hopefully we never have to visit this in 2020

14/n) Coming to the popular vote% difference between Biden & Trump , I think Biden would have a lead of somewhere between 3.5 to 7% ( thought as outlined in thread above he could lose the electoral college)

15/n) The House should remain comfortably in Democrats hand in this cycle (i.e. no flipping over to Republicans) . There could be a possible+/- of a few seats vs last cycle in 2018.

16/n) Senate could be at 50-50 (or possibly 51-49) for this 2020 cycle.
Disclaimer: Georgia Senate Races. Contd. below

17/n) I expect at least 1/2 (if not both) Georgia Senate races to go to a runoff in Jan 2021. (i.e. If no one gets 50% of the vote). This means that while control of Presidency might have been settled the control of the Senate might be up in the air till Jan 2021.

18/n) In case of a Biden win Rep supporters would be more enthused to vote in Jan 2021 & in case of a Trump win Dem supporters will be more eager to vote. So it could be peculiar situation that the winner of White House & winner of Georgia Senate runoff could be opposite parties.

19/n) I know that I am going against conventional polling wisdom here (as many pollsters are predicting easy Biden win) so we will have to wait and watch who wins in the end

20/n) One thing I forgot to add above is Election Day turnout. with 100M votes already cast Trump needs a massive Election Day turnout.

21/n) With 100M votes already been cast which are likely to favor Biden (as per some polls) Trump will need a huge turnout (50+M at minimum: more likely 55-60M) to prevent a blowout in popular vote% margin and keep the contest alive in the swing states. https://twitter.com/MohalJoshi/status/1323145859400298496

22/n) A huge election day turnout can help him overcome the margins racked up by Dems in early in person & vote by mail voting.

23/n) A failure to turnout the vote by Reps will mean an easy win for Biden/Dems who have already "banked their votes" (in cricketing terms Dems already have runs on the board batting first and are defending their total)

24/n) In many states Trump & Biden are neck to neck (as per polling) & who wins on Nov 3rd will depend on who can get their voters to the booth in this election (i.e. it is a turnout game now)

25/n) Wanted to clarify something as I got some replies. There are way more swing states than just PA/WI which I have mentioned in my thread. I was confident of others so didn't talk about them much but just put final prediction for those other 48 states.