Thread by @WillMcAvoyACN, As we head into an election night that has more uncertainty than [...]

As we head into an election night that has more uncertainty than anyone would like, I think it is a good time to take stock of what we know and what we don't know, and how to be good consumers and conveyors of information at a time where America is on edge and simmering.

Here's what we know: There will be massive numbers of early voters, but some states have not yet begun to count those votes. As such, we will have large vote totals for some states early, and other states will take much longer to count the votes.

WE KNOW: that the demographic for absentee ballots, early voting and day of voting are different, politically.
WE DON'T KNOW: Exactly what those numbers are and how they will be reported state-by-state.

For example, I expect early in the night Biden will have a lead in Texas as a result of early voting? How significant? We don't know. Texas is one of the big unknowns in this race because of the sheer volume of unlikely voters who have already voted.

We should not only be prepared, but indeed expect not to know who the next President will be before the end of the evening. While there is an off-chance that we could know if it is a monsoon-level voting for a single candidate, the chances of that kind of upset is slim--we think.

Because, again: we don't know. We're using voting models that use a lot of different weights based on the errors we had last time around, but this election feels different, and unlike the past it's harder to get a 'feel' for what the results will bring.

People have spent the last four years self-segregating, and largely dividing themselves from the people with whom they disagree with politically. The one place where they still interact regularly, the workplace, has been shutdown so people aren't talking about these issues.

And so you have a bunch of people who are only hearing one version of reality, and not encountering people who disagree with them unless they seek them out. Which, I fear, has only added to the polarization that was already at high levels, at least during times of peace.

Unfortunately, it doesn't matter if CNN, MSNBC, the networks, etc. choose not to go live with Trump's victory speech if he doesn't win, because FoxNews and OAN will, and that will get to his audience. So, how do you handle something like this?

For the record: The path to victory for Trump is extremely narrow and he is far less likely to be in a credible position to claim victory tomorrow night, but credibility isn't really a concern for Trump when making claims. See: inauguration crowds.

The best things we can do is this:
1. Don't make projections until you are sure. Not mostly sure, not with a small margin of error sure. 100% sure. Do not be in a rush to be the first state to make a call. Remember 2000.

2. Explain in detail why you are not making calls. For the record, I think this is something that networks have been doing much better in the last few national races.

3. LIMIT THE TIME YOU HAVE POLITICAL TALKING HEADS ON. In a normal election I think this is fine, but this is anything but a normal election and there's going to be all kinds of spin. This year more than ever we need to focus on what we know, what we don't know, etc.

4. Do not give live vote totals from a specific precinct out live on the air. It's meaningless information for anyone not in that precinct and often for people in them.

5. Advise viewers of what you don't know, report on what you do know. We'll know several Senate race results early. Don't extrapolate.

5a. Don't try and project a national mood based on the earliest results, unless something is beyond bizarre. If Tom Cotton is losing, you have my permission to make a big fucking deal out of it.

6. If you are going to have political analysts on, make sure it is clearly defined separate segments. Do not have them at the main desk.

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