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It's time for me to show what I really think. All joking aside. These are my true, serious presidential predictions. I have Biden winning 413 electoral votes. He will win back the Blue Wall states. And he will break the Red Wall. Trump has had a losing strategy from the start.
Trump barely pulled out Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2016. Urban turnout will be higher and Trump will do even worse in the suburbs. That alone will sink him. Even without the WWC swing. Iowa and Ohio were tough but Iowa's elasticity and certain factors in Ohio lead
me to believe that Biden just barely pulls them out. I think Florida will flip because of Biden being unusually strong with seniors and white voters. It will be close, but I think Biden wins. In North Carolina, Biden will improve in the rural areas and exurbs and crush it in the
cities. Arizona will flip because many suburban Republicans and longtime McCain voters are horrified and disgusted by Trump. The Latino vote will also turn out, as it did for Sinema. Maricopa will vote Democratic for the first time since 1948. Georgia may seem bold. But there are
reports of Trump absolutely cratering in the suburbs of Atlanta. Biden will put up monstrous numbers in the city while winning the suburbs big. Blood red exurban counties Forsyth and Cherokee have gradually been trending blue. That will continue this year, shaving Trump's margin.
Rural Georgia won't be quite enough, especially if rural African American voters turn out. Texas...well, it's not that complicated. Massive swings in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, Houston, and the Austin suburbs. There's been ridiculous early turnout, with huge numbers of new
voters in the population centers. Trump is in very serious danger of losing Collin County and will certainly lose Williamson and Tarrant. Biden will put up historic margins in Harris, Bexar, Travis, and Dallas. The 800,000 votes Clinton lost by seem like a lot to make up. But
with millions more votes than in 2016, not an insurmountable obstacle. It will be close. But Trump can squeeze only so much more out of rural counties that gave him 75-85% of the vote. And the smaller cities (think Amarillo, Lubbock, Nacogdoches, etc.) have also been trending in
the direction of the Democrats. Biden won't win them, but he'll reduce the margins. The trends in Texas are horrific for Republicans. And in this environment, with these candidates, this will be the year they finally take full effect. Biden will also come surprisingly close in
many very red states. Kansas, Montana, Alaska, South Carolina, and Missouri will either be single digit races or close to it. Biden will be within 20% in Alabama. 12% in Mississippi. Don't be shocked if he comes close to 40% in Oklahoma. Kentucky and Tennessee may be within 20%.
Maybe I'll have egg on my face after tomorrow. But the massive urban/suburban turnout, Trump's incredible unpopularity among white college voters, and significantly reduced support among white non college voters spell devastation for Trump. He won by basically the slimmest margin
possible in 2016. He relied on a demographic group that is gradually becoming a smaller part of the electorate. Instead of trying to build stronger support, he spent the next four years alienating everybody who opposed him and many who supported him. The suburban backlash was
huge without Trump on the ballot in 2018. With him on the ballot, after two more years and a lethal pandemic, it will be even larger. Millions who stayed on the sidelines in 2016 have woken up. Millions who took a chance on Trump have decided they didn't like it.
It's hard to find any viable path for Trump. He won so narrowly last time. And now everything has turned against him. And after four very long years of having to endure Trump, Americans will now pronounce judgment. @kilometerbryman @leuchtman @JonMIPol @SenhorRaposa @ArjavRawal
