[THREAD] So, let's humor Nate Silver and assume his model is correct. Currently, he has Trump at a 1 in 10 chance to win.
Let's set Georgia as a lock for Trump. Instantly, his odds shoot up to 1 in 4.
Add Florida, now 4 in 10.
North Carolina for the trifecta, and now we're at evens.
Finally AZ, and now 6 in 10.
Let's instead reset all the states now, and just lock PA for Trump. Instantly, Biden's thrown into a weak position - 6 in 10 for Trump.
What's the point of all of this? While mainstream projections may look bad, even by the most pro-Biden models, if Trump has wins in a few key states (NC, FL, GA) we can have a gauge of the performance of the rest of the night.
The South, therefore, will be a bellwether for Trump's performance tomorrow night.
And considering I'm pretty sure that GA, FL, and NC are all strong Trump states, I think that Don's chances are better than the pollsters give him credit for.
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