Feeling much better about the prospects for American democracy after looking at early vote totals in Pennsylvania. Here's the short version: 123,969.

123,969 is the difference of differences between Dem mail votes and Republican. Dems have requested 1.9m mail ballots in PA and returned a shade less than 1.6m. For Republicans, the figures are 787k/555k.

This does not count any ballots arriving today or tomorrow, nor I believe does it count early in-person voting.

What this means is that Trump has to hold Biden to less than a 124,000 vote lead in order for his scheme to cut off absentee ballots to work. Any more than that, and Trump's giving up more in absentee votes than he gets back.

But like I say, that doesn't include the votes received today or tomorrow, or early in-person voting, so Dems have almost certainly narrowed that gap considerably already.

Meanwhile, 538 has Biden up by an average of 4.9 points, which translates into a lead of about 294,000 votes, assuming the electorate is the same size as in 2016.

But this is not 2016.

Turnout is likely to be much higher. I can't estimate how much higher, but if it goes as high as 6.5 million, say, that takes Biden's margin to 318,500.

Friends, Trump is not going to be able to find 318,500 absentee ballots received after tomorrow's deadline to impugn.

He would have to manage to have the *entire* absentee vote thrown out, a much higher hurdle to clear, *and* be the beneficiary of a >5.0 point error in polling. That's just not going to happen.

*If* turnout is low and *if* the Trump vote is underreported and *if* he can get the absentee ballots tossed, he has a chance. Now, obviously, his campaign thinks he does have a chance, but they've been contesting PA right up to the end.

But if I'm Team Trump, I don't like the odds here.