COVID election eve update: I want to share a number of conversations & scenarios I’ve been having. 1/

First of all I don’t know a scientist, a civil servant, a public health official, or a public lab head that isn’t praying for a Biden victory. And that doesn’t mean there aren’t some out there, but I’m not just talking about Democrats. 2/

If I could have any endorsement in the world right now, it would be from @larrybrilliant. https://twitter.com/cherylkoehn/status/1323441313178546176

Economists from rating agencies to Goldman Sachs are in full agreement with labor leaders that we will have more jobs under Biden.

None of this should be a surprise. 4/

When you have to reach all the way to Scott Atlas to find someone with a degree that will support you, you’ve bypassed a universe of more qualified people. 5/

Are they all wrong and Trump right? Is 1 person getting infected every hour & 1 person dying every minute turning the corner? 6/

More importantly seniors in Arizona and Florida and Pennsylvania get that he is willing to sacrifice them.

People who have lost their jobs and still want insurance get it.

Suburban moms have seen a “health department” manage cages of kids lost from their parents. 7/

I’m going to focus on the election not because I’m a pundit but because I want to discuss management of the pandemic these next few weeks. 8/

I’m not going to predict anything other than this.

1. Biden will win the popular vote by quite a lot. That will make it 7/8 for Democrats with a mixed record of actually getting to serve. 9/

2. A clean enough sweep/early night/tomorrow result is possible and it depends on AZ, GA, and FL.
3. Everyone is looking for the AP desk to call the race. The Fox News desk is going to be one to watch. If they call the election for Biden it’s a big deal. 10/

4. A scenario where a Biden victory is clear will not necessarily mean a concession from Trump. Call that Scenario A.
5. Pennsylvania will be outstanding for a few days, Wisconsin will, Michigan will. Those states may be callable before all the votes are counted. 11/

6. The race not being called and facing a court case is another possible scenario. Scenario B. That could mean if Trump wins PA, NC, FL & GA and Biden wins AZ, WI & MI. Or PA could be in a recount. 12/

7. As of now, the federal courts are deferring to the highest state court every time. PA Supreme Court has been on the side of making sure votes are counted. But Barrett COULD change that dynamic. She could swing the court to overturn the state. 13/

This is what Trump keeps bullying about and hinting at. He can’t control himself. He makes his strategy public & he tries to intimidate. Whether he & Barrett discussed this history may never know. 14/

8. The point is a Scenario C could emerge where Trump wins either by the electoral college or the Supreme Court. If that happens, Trump will have survived despite trying to get rid of the ACA. The courts will likely finish the job. The election could even be part of the logic.15

In A or B, I don’t expect Trump to go quietly. But I do expect him to go. The transition becomes tricky.

In all cases, expectation is he fires Fauci, possibly Birx, and makes the transition difficult. I think the resulting chaos is not good.16/

But I will have recommendations for Biden that I will share here and on Wednesday @JessicaYellin & I are co-hosting #inthebubble (thank you Jessica) to discuss the returns & these scenarios & my advice. 17/ http://Smarturl.it/inthebubble 

If we are in Scenario A, my recommendations are going to be to be very assertive in assuming whatever control is needed. If B or C, the complication will be the election is technically extended.

And however the results turn out, transition planning wouldn’t formally begin.18/

Here is what is actionable today. Trump hardcore voters will turn out tomorrow. They have an electoral college advantage. They have a postal service advantage. They have a suppression machine. And they have a potential new justice on their side. 19/

If a lot of Biden voters don’t turn out tomorrow— in every possible state, Trump can easily win. And pandemic and ACA and ICE and cages all get worse.

But there are more than enough Biden voters. 20/

We will live through a messy few weeks, but a messy few weeks with a good outcome & a sound compassionate lewder is the best we can hope for. 21/

No matter what happens I’m not going anywhere. I’m fixated on doing anything I can to help end this thing. We have failed so far but it doesn’t mean we won’t succeed. 22/

One final thought. It looks bad from a distance— Trump I mean. Particularly the pandemic & health care.

You have absolutely no idea how actually off the rails it really Is. What Larry says is in that recording is true. 23/

That’s it. I’m about to go eat a box of nails. Take it a way Marshall. /end https://twitter.com/eminem/status/1323304002285654016