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Alright, time for an ill-advised pre-election thread. I think this race is most fundamentally about three things:
1) A majority of the American public believes that COVID is real, are trying to protect their families from it, and believe Donald Trump botched the country's response to it. They are aghast at the rallies, attacks on Fauci/doctors etc.
2) A majority of the American public is sick of Donald Trump, as a person. They are sick of the chaos, depraved behavior, and lies.
3) A smaller majority, but a majority, believes Joe Biden is a fundamentally decent and competent person. A majority of the American public sees Joe Biden as someone whose views are mainstream, who is not an ideologue.
As a result, I think Biden is going to win the solid victory the polls suggest he should. I think the map is going to look somewhat like this. https://www.270towin.com/maps/0DBJO
I think the Senate will look something like this: https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/5P3brM
I think Joe Biden's team deserves a ton of credit for running a solid, steady, non-panicky campaign with a clear and consistent message that was right for the present moment.
I think Trump's 2020 campaign was, by far, the worst presidential campaign I've seen since I've started paying attention to politics. He failed to articulate, even once, why he deserved a second term or explain what he intended to accomplish.
And Trump failed to negatively define Joe Biden, despite that supposedly being his political superpower. His attacks were scattershot, contradictory, and often refuted simply by knowing who Biden is. No one's gonna believe that Biden's the grand marshal of antifa.
Unlike some others, I never believed Trump was a favorite for re-election. I thought his win was a once-in-a-century fluke, rather than the result of some magic political abilities. I still think so, and think his own-goaling campaign, and much of the last 4 years, backs that up.
We'll see tomorrow. Word of advice: You will not get any useful information before polls close on Election Day. There will be problems at polling sites, long lines, rumors about turnout, early exit polls. None of it will be any sort of reliable indicator about what's to come.
