How did more people vote early in Texas than voted in total in any other election in the state's history? Huge surges in turnout from every race/ethnic group except white, non-college voters, whose turnout is still 282,446 votes behind 2016 levels.

Here's the thing - given the fact that every other group has surpassed 2016 turnout, 471,747 more white non-college voters would have to vote in Texas tomorrow just for that group to match their 2016 electorate share... if literally no one but white non-college voters turned out.

To state the obvious, that won't happen. Large numbers of Black, Latino, Asian, and other voters of color, as well as white college educated voters will cast a ballot on Election Day. What's more, simply matching 2016 vote shares is likely not enough for Trump.

From an age perspective, voters under the age of 30 in Texas have reached 115% of their total 2016 turnout, while voters age 50 to 64 (the most heavily GOP age group) are just below 2016's total vote, at 99%.