Bush 00: 24.1% of Eligible Voters
Gore 00: 24.3%

Kerry 04 26.9%
W 04 28.2%

McCain 08 26.1%
Obama 08 30.2%

Romney 12: 25.9%
Obama 12 28.1%

DT 16: 25.6%
HRC 16 26.7%

High mark for the GOP is W in 04 https://twitter.com/streethistory/status/1323450368836227078

Let's stretch this out a bit.
at 67% turnout with the GOP hitting their High mark of W in 04 it would be
Biden 38.8% of Eligible voters and
DT 28.2% of Eligible voters.
That would be Biden 58/42 and a landslide.

If DT hits Obama 08 levels of % of Eligible voters?
That would be
Biden 36.8% of the eligible voters
DT 30.2% of eligible voters or
Biden 55/45 or basically the 538 average a week ago.

This, again, is why the polling error is going to be in line with 2012 not 2016.
How is a president who's been ten points underwater in approval ratings for the last 2 years winning the turnout wave election of all turnout wave elections?

Here's the data in a table and a Chart:
Note that I added the 3 hyphotheticals

If I work 6 scenarios
Turnout at 160 or 170 million
with a nominal 3rd party vote and DT with
W in 04 or Obama in 08 or Reagan in 84 turnout?

I get
160m:
W: Biden 57/42 +15
O: Biden 54/45 +9
R: Biden 52/47 +5

170m:
W: Biden 58/40 +18
O: Biden 55/42 +13
R: Biden 54/44 +10

Basically? At these levels of turnout, DT would need Regan level turnout from the GOP to have a shot at stealing the electoral college narrowly.
And that chance rapidly disappears as you add more turnout.

Ultimately, making "I'm going to steal your vote" a significant part of the closing argument might have been a big blunder.

If the President just gets his 2016 base to turnout or he has bad turnout? This gets super ugly.