Read on Twitter
1/ Oil Macro/Equities and US Presidents
Disclaimer: In choosing to engage on Twitter, I had vowed to avoid political commentary. I despise partisan politics. I believe this thread honors the spirit of my commitment to myself.
Disclaimer: In choosing to engage on Twitter, I had vowed to avoid political commentary. I despise partisan politics. I believe this thread honors the spirit of my commitment to myself.
2/ The correlation between the performance of oil macro/equities and which party controls the White House is poor at best. In my lifetime, we have seen the following:
Five major oil crashes:
’86 - Reagen (R)
’98 - Clinton (D)
’08 - W. Bush (R)
’14 - Obama (D)
’20 - Trump (R)
Five major oil crashes:
’86 - Reagen (R)
’98 - Clinton (D)
’08 - W. Bush (R)
’14 - Obama (D)
’20 - Trump (R)
3/ Three structural oil rallies...(plus 1 to come, IMO):
’74-’80: Nixon/Ford (R), Carter (D) (sidebar note: the cardigan sweater is my first memory of a presidential speech)
’04-’08: W. Bush (R)
’09-’14: Obama (D)
’21/’22E-future years: ???
’74-’80: Nixon/Ford (R), Carter (D) (sidebar note: the cardigan sweater is my first memory of a presidential speech)
’04-’08: W. Bush (R)
’09-’14: Obama (D)
’21/’22E-future years: ???
4/ The US Prez matters for reasons beyond the narrow focus of this thread - big oil cycles in my lifetime. The commonly held view that Rs are “good” and Ds are “bad” for oil equities is not born out by history. Oil equities have done well and poorly under R and D administrations.
5/ Oil S/D fundamentals matter more than any party’s rhetoric. It is much easier to impact supply than significantly change the trajectory of demand. The regulatory and investment climate impact the former (in all countries)...the outlook for global GDP drives the latter.
6/ Since I can see that it is not possible on Twitter to post anything “neutral”, I offer in advance my sincere apologies to all Rs, Ds, Independents, and non-American followers and non-followers that I have undoubtedly offended or triggered with these observations :)
